NBA games

PHX @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
84119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2024221884
OKC35303222119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home OKC
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 33 23 6 2
Dillon Brooks S 32 18 7 2
Jalen Green S 32 17 5 1
Rasheer Fleming 8 9 0 0
Collin Gillespie 23 8 2 2
Royce O'Neale 23 4 3 3
Jamaree Bouyea 8 3 3 1
Jordan Goodwin S 5 2 0 0
Oso Ighodaro S 26 0 9 3
Khaman Maluach 15 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 25 4 7
Jalen Williams S 29 22 7 6
Chet Holmgren S 25 16 7 0
Isaiah Joe 20 9 2 1
Ajay Mitchell 22 9 5 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 8 8 2
Luguentz Dort S 24 8 2 2
Cason Wallace 21 6 4 2
Jared McCain 8 5 0 0
Jaylin Williams 10 5 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
2 Devin Booker PHX
9%
3 Jalen Green PHX
9%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
8%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
7%
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX
6%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
10 Jared McCain OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
21%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.8 3.7 6.7
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.7 4.1 6.6
3 Jalen Green PHX 22.2 4.6 3.5
4 Jalen Williams OKC 16.5 3.9 4.8
5 Dillon Brooks PHX 15.5 3.9 2.3
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 14.8 7.4 1.6
7 Grayson Allen PHX 11.1 2.9 2.1
8 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.6 5.0 1.9
9 Ajay Mitchell OKC 9.3 2.7 2.8
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.3 3.9 1.6
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 7.6 3.4 3.1
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.1 1.5 0.8
13 Oso Ighodaro PHX 7.1 5.9 2.7
14 Luguentz Dort OKC 6.9 2.2 1.2
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.6 2.3 1.5
16 Rasheer Fleming PHX 5.9 2.5 0.9
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.8 3.8 1.3
18 Nikola Topic OKC 5.7 1.6 4.3
19 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 5.3 8.1 3.0
20 Haywood Highsmith PHX 5.2 2.0 1.0
21 Jared McCain OKC 5.1 1.3 0.9
22 Khaman Maluach PHX 5.0 5.3 0.4
23 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.8 1.4 1.0
24 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.8 1.8 1.7
25 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.4 2.8 1.0
26 Amir Coffey PHX 4.2 1.7 0.7
27 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.0 4.2 1.3
28 Alex Caruso OKC 3.7 1.9 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.