NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
91–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI1828252091
BOS33313128123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 37 21 1 8
Paul George S 28 17 4 1
VJ Edgecombe S 34 13 3 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 31 10 7 2
Justin Edwards 17 7 6 0
Quentin Grimes 25 7 4 2
Trendon Watford 7 6 1 0
Dominick Barlow 15 4 3 0
Adem Bona S 14 3 3 0
Andre Drummond 21 2 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 30 26 4 3
Jayson Tatum S 32 25 11 7
Neemias Queta S 15 13 2 1
Payton Pritchard 34 12 3 6
Sam Hauser S 28 12 7 2
Derrick White S 33 10 3 6
Luka Garza 14 7 2 1
Ron Harper Jr. 4 5 0 0
Jordan Walsh 15 5 2 2
Baylor Scheierman 15 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
8%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
7%
6 Paul George PHI
7%
7 Derrick White BOS
6%
8 Adem Bona PHI
6%
9 Max Shulga BOS
6%
10 Luka Garza BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
16%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.7 6.0 5.8
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.1 4.2 5.9
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 22.7 10.2 6.1
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 19.8 3.8 4.2
5 Paul George PHI 19.5 5.4 3.9
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 16.6 5.6 5.1
7 Neemias Queta BOS 12.0 8.8 1.9
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.6 5.3 1.4
9 Derrick White BOS 10.5 3.5 3.3
10 Luka Garza BOS 10.3 5.1 1.1
11 Sam Hauser BOS 10.2 3.4 1.4
12 Quentin Grimes PHI 9.2 3.0 1.7
13 Baylor Scheierman BOS 8.7 3.0 1.9
14 Nikola Vucevic BOS 7.7 5.2 1.6
15 Trendon Watford PHI 6.1 2.7 2.2
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.6 6.5 1.5
17 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.4 3.3 1.1
18 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 5.0 1.4 0.8
19 Dominick Barlow PHI 4.9 4.4 0.8
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.1 3.2 0.6
21 Dalen Terry PHI 4.0 1.4 1.3
22 Justin Edwards PHI 4.0 0.8 0.6
23 Jabari Walker PHI 3.0 1.4 0.6
24 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 2.6 2.1 0.4
25 Dalano Banton BOS 2.3 1.2 1.2
26 Johni Broome PHI 2.1 1.6 0.5
27 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.5 0.8 0.4
28 Amari Williams BOS 1.5 1.3 0.4
29 Max Shulga BOS 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.