NBA games

HOU @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
98–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2919183298
LAL33172532107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAL
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 36 19 8 6
Amen Thompson S 43 17 7 7
Reed Sheppard S 36 17 1 8
Tari Eason 24 16 10 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 43 16 12 0
Josh Okogie S 26 7 0 1
Jae'Sean Tate 10 4 4 0
Clint Capela 11 2 2 0
Aaron Holiday 11 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luke Kennard S 38 27 4 3
LeBron James S 38 19 8 13
Deandre Ayton S 35 19 11 2
Marcus Smart S 34 15 2 8
Rui Hachimura S 42 14 2 0
Jake LaRavia 18 6 2 3
Jaxson Hayes 13 4 1 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 18 3 5 0
Bronny James 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Okogie · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Josh Okogie makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
2 Kevin Durant HOU
8%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
8%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
5 LeBron James LAL
8%
6 Clint Capela HOU
7%
7 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
9 Tari Eason HOU
7%
10 Jae'Sean Tate HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 25.6 5.5 6.5
2 LeBron James LAL 22.5 7.1 8.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.0 8.1 5.9
4 Amen Thompson HOU 21.4 7.3 6.1
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 17.1 6.7 2.0
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.3 3.3 2.9
7 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.8 6.3 0.9
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 3.8 1.1
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.5 5.6 1.3
10 Luke Kennard LAL 10.0 3.1 3.5
11 Marcus Smart LAL 9.3 2.3 3.2
12 Jaxson Hayes LAL 9.2 4.7 0.9
13 Jake LaRavia LAL 7.2 4.5 1.6
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.8 1.3 0.9
15 Bronny James LAL 4.4 1.0 1.0
16 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.1 1.7 1.1
17 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 3.8 0.7 0.6
18 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.6 2.9 1.0
19 Clint Capela HOU 3.3 4.7 0.5
20 Josh Okogie HOU 3.2 1.9 0.9
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.9 1.9 0.6
22 JD Davison HOU 2.7 1.6 1.0
23 Dalton Knecht LAL 2.6 0.9 0.5
24 Adou Thiero LAL 2.2 0.9 0.4
25 Jeff Green HOU 2.1 1.3 0.4
26 Maxi Kleber LAL 1.8 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.