NBA games

ATL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
102–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL24311928102
NY30272630113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NY
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 34 26 3 1
Jalen Johnson S 39 23 7 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 37 19 8 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 39 17 1 4
Jonathan Kuminga 27 8 4 1
Dyson Daniels S 36 4 9 11
Mouhamed Gueye 11 3 3 1
Gabe Vincent 15 2 1 2
Zaccharie Risacher 2 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 28 5 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 25 8 4
OG Anunoby S 38 18 8 0
Josh Hart S 37 11 14 5
Mikal Bridges S 32 11 2 1
Jordan Clarkson 11 8 2 1
Miles McBride 21 6 1 2
Mitchell Robinson 15 3 4 1
Landry Shamet 18 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 11-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum ATL
8%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
7%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
6%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
6%
7 Ariel Hukporti NY
5%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
5%
9 Asa Newell ATL
5%
10 Tony Bradley ATL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.7 3.2 7.9
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 22.3 3.8 3.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.2 11.2 4.0
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.1 8.6 6.2
5 CJ McCollum ATL 18.5 3.4 5.2
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.0 7.4 5.2
7 OG Anunoby NY 14.7 4.6 1.9
8 Mikal Bridges NY 13.7 2.5 2.8
9 Josh Hart NY 12.3 5.4 3.3
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.3 5.6 2.2
11 Jonathan Kuminga ATL 8.4 3.3 1.4
12 Miles McBride NY 6.8 2.1 1.6
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.7 7.7 0.6
14 Jose Alvarado NY 6.7 2.1 3.2
15 Landry Shamet NY 6.0 1.9 1.1
16 Corey Kispert ATL 5.5 1.3 1.0
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 4.9 2.0 1.0
18 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 4.9 3.1 0.5
19 Buddy Hield ATL 4.5 1.4 1.1
20 Asa Newell ATL 4.2 2.1 0.6
21 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.9 1.2 1.1
22 Gabe Vincent ATL 3.5 1.1 1.0
23 Tony Bradley ATL 3.2 2.8 0.5
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.0 2.5 0.7
25 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.9 2.0 0.7
26 Tyler Kolek NY 2.9 0.8 1.9
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.9 1.2 0.5
28 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.6 2.7 0.6
29 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.5 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.