NBA games

MIN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
105–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33291726105
DEN23392925116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DEN
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 22 9 7
Rudy Gobert S 38 17 10 2
Jaden McDaniels S 33 16 8 3
Julius Randle S 31 16 7 2
Ayo Dosunmu 28 14 0 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 12 4 2
Naz Reid 17 5 3 2
Mike Conley 11 3 1 2
Bones Hyland 5 0 1 0
Kyle Anderson 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 39 30 5 7
Nikola Jokic S 40 25 13 11
Aaron Gordon S 29 17 8 3
Cameron Johnson S 33 12 0 1
Christian Braun S 36 12 8 1
Bruce Brown 21 8 7 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 24 7 3 1
Spencer Jones 9 5 0 0
Jonas Valanciunas 8 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
6%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
6%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
6%
4 Cameron Johnson DEN
6%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
6%
6 Julius Randle MIN
6%
7 Anthony Edwards MIN
5%
8 Kyle Anderson MIN
5%
9 Joan Beringer MIN
5%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.4 11.6 10.4
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.8 4.2 3.9
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.3 4.3 6.6
4 Julius Randle MIN 21.9 5.2 5.2
5 Ayo Dosunmu MIN 19.5 6.3 5.0
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.1 4.2 2.4
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.8 4.6 3.1
8 Cameron Johnson DEN 13.7 3.8 2.7
9 Bones Hyland MIN 13.0 2.8 3.2
10 Naz Reid MIN 12.7 5.6 1.7
11 Christian Braun DEN 12.7 4.1 1.9
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.7 10.7 1.2
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.1 2.5 2.1
14 Bruce Brown DEN 10.1 4.1 2.1
15 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 9.1 2.4 1.3
16 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 8.1 5.6 0.9
17 Julian Strawther DEN 7.9 2.3 1.2
18 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 7.9 1.5 1.4
19 Kyle Anderson MIN 5.4 3.5 2.7
20 Mike Conley MIN 5.0 1.5 2.6
21 Spencer Jones DEN 4.8 2.8 0.8
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.6 1.6 0.9
23 Joan Beringer MIN 4.1 3.4 0.4
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.9 1.0 1.1
25 Julian Phillips MIN 3.0 0.8 0.5
26 Joe Ingles MIN 3.0 1.3 1.6
27 Tyus Jones DEN 2.9 1.2 1.0
28 DaRon Holmes II DEN 2.9 1.1 0.5
29 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.6 2.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.