NBA games

TOR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
113–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR31232237113
CLE35263629126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CLE
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 31 24 2 3
Scottie Barnes S 32 21 1 7
Brandon Ingram S 36 17 2 4
Jamal Shead S 28 17 1 2
Collin Murray-Boyles 20 14 4 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 28 7 2 2
Jakob Poeltl S 21 4 6 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 20 3 8 2
A.J. Lawson 14 2 0 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 31 32 3 4
Max Strus 24 24 3 0
James Harden S 33 22 2 10
Evan Mobley S 33 17 7 4
Jarrett Allen S 28 10 7 0
Sam Merrill 21 7 4 2
Dean Wade S 23 5 3 1
Keon Ellis 15 3 3 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 2 2 0 0
Dennis Schroder 13 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
10%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
8%
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE
8%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
7%
8 James Harden CLE
7%
9 Larry Nance Jr. CLE
6%
10 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
28%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.7 4.9 4.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 21.9 5.1 4.0
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 21.4 5.4 3.9
4 James Harden CLE 21.0 4.0 6.9
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 18.9 6.3 8.6
6 Evan Mobley CLE 18.9 8.9 3.4
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 16.2 7.7 1.4
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 12.5 5.3 2.0
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.3 5.3 1.8
10 Sam Merrill CLE 11.3 3.2 2.4
11 Jaylon Tyson CLE 10.9 3.6 2.1
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 10.1 3.3 1.8
13 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 9.8 5.2 1.1
14 Jamal Shead TOR 8.8 1.4 6.0
15 Keon Ellis CLE 8.7 2.5 1.3
16 Max Strus CLE 8.7 4.2 1.5
17 Dennis Schroder CLE 7.6 2.2 3.7
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.7 1.6 1.6
19 Dean Wade CLE 4.9 3.1 1.0
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.8 3.2 1.8
21 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 4.7 3.0 0.8
22 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.2 1.6 0.5
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.5 2.3 0.7
24 Jamison Battle TOR 3.5 1.2 0.5
25 Gradey Dick TOR 2.8 0.9 0.4
26 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.1 1.7 0.7
27 Trayce Jackson-Davis TOR 1.9 1.4 0.5
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.