NBA games

GS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
96111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS1530242796
PHX33172833111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHX
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski S 39 23 10 0
Stephen Curry S 36 17 4 4
De'Anthony Melton 28 16 8 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 15 11 1 0
Al Horford 26 9 5 2
Gui Santos S 30 9 6 4
Draymond Green S 36 5 2 6
Gary Payton II 26 4 3 3
Pat Spencer 1 2 0 0
Seth Curry 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 40 36 6 4
Devin Booker S 42 20 6 8
Jordan Goodwin S 34 19 9 2
Dillon Brooks S 30 13 1 4
Royce O'Neale 26 11 2 1
Oso Ighodaro S 26 10 6 1
Collin Gillespie 17 2 2 2
Khaman Maluach 5 0 2 0
Amir Coffey 1 0 0 0
Jamaree Bouyea 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Draymond Green makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
11%
2 Stephen Curry GS
9%
3 Jalen Green PHX
9%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
9%
5 Kristaps Porzingis GS
9%
6 Gui Santos GS
8%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Jamaree Bouyea PHX
7%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
10 Rasheer Fleming PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
12%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.8 3.6 6.9
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.4 3.6 4.1
3 Jalen Green PHX 22.8 4.6 4.1
4 Brandin Podziemski GS 20.0 4.3 3.4
5 Gui Santos GS 17.8 4.9 4.1
6 Kristaps Porzingis GS 16.5 5.8 2.7
7 Dillon Brooks PHX 16.2 4.0 2.3
8 Grayson Allen PHX 12.1 3.0 2.4
9 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.8 4.6 2.0
10 Al Horford GS 9.8 4.4 2.3
11 Pat Spencer GS 9.7 3.1 3.8
12 Gary Payton II GS 9.1 4.5 1.5
13 De'Anthony Melton GS 9.0 3.9 3.6
14 Draymond Green GS 8.9 4.7 6.4
15 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.8 4.1 1.9
16 Collin Gillespie PHX 8.2 3.5 3.1
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 8.0 6.1 3.0
18 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.3 2.9 0.9
19 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.1 4.5 1.8
20 Seth Curry GS 5.2 1.1 0.8
21 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.9 5.5 0.5
22 Haywood Highsmith PHX 4.8 1.7 0.9
23 Will Richard GS 4.8 1.9 0.9
24 Charles Bassey GS 4.6 3.6 0.4
25 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 4.6 1.3 1.6
26 Amir Coffey PHX 3.7 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.