GS @ PHX
NBA
Mortgage Matchup Center
·Final
96–111
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 15 | 30 | 24 | 27 | 96 |
| PHX | 33 | 17 | 28 | 33 | 111 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS
away
home
PHX
23%
77%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski S | 39 | 23 | 10 | 0 |
| Stephen Curry S | 36 | 17 | 4 | 4 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 28 | 16 | 8 | 3 |
| Kristaps Porzingis S | 15 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Al Horford | 26 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
| Gui Santos S | 30 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
| Draymond Green S | 36 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Gary Payton II | 26 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Pat Spencer | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Seth Curry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Draymond Green ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Draymond Green makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Devin Booker
PHX
11%
2
Stephen Curry
GS
9%
3
Jalen Green
PHX
9%
4
Dillon Brooks
PHX
9%
5
Kristaps Porzingis
GS
9%
6
Gui Santos
GS
8%
7
Brandin Podziemski
GS
8%
8
Jamaree Bouyea
PHX
7%
9
Grayson Allen
PHX
7%
10
Rasheer Fleming
PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
12%
Layup
8%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devin Booker | PHX | 27.8 | 3.6 | 6.9 |
| 2 | Stephen Curry | GS | 23.4 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| 3 | Jalen Green | PHX | 22.8 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| 4 | Brandin Podziemski | GS | 20.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| 5 | Gui Santos | GS | 17.8 | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| 6 | Kristaps Porzingis | GS | 16.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 |
| 7 | Dillon Brooks | PHX | 16.2 | 4.0 | 2.3 |
| 8 | Grayson Allen | PHX | 12.1 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| 9 | Jordan Goodwin | PHX | 9.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 |
| 10 | Al Horford | GS | 9.8 | 4.4 | 2.3 |
| 11 | Pat Spencer | GS | 9.7 | 3.1 | 3.8 |
| 12 | Gary Payton II | GS | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
| 13 | De'Anthony Melton | GS | 9.0 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| 14 | Draymond Green | GS | 8.9 | 4.7 | 6.4 |
| 15 | Royce O'Neale | PHX | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 16 | Collin Gillespie | PHX | 8.2 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| 17 | Oso Ighodaro | PHX | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.0 |
| 18 | Rasheer Fleming | PHX | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 19 | Ryan Dunn | PHX | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| 20 | Seth Curry | GS | 5.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 21 | Khaman Maluach | PHX | 4.9 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
| 22 | Haywood Highsmith | PHX | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 23 | Will Richard | GS | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 24 | Charles Bassey | GS | 4.6 | 3.6 | 0.4 |
| 25 | Jamaree Bouyea | PHX | 4.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 26 | Amir Coffey | PHX | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.