NBA games

CHA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
90–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA1621341990
ORL38303419121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ORL
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 25 23 2 5
Miles Bridges S 28 15 2 1
Brandon Miller S 29 14 3 1
Kon Knueppel S 29 11 3 1
Sion James 18 6 2 2
Coby White 17 4 0 0
Tidjane Salaun 9 4 2 2
Moussa Diabate S 18 2 8 2
Xavier Tillman 7 2 2 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner 18 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 33 25 5 6
Franz Wagner S 25 18 7 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 16 6 1
Desmond Bane S 35 13 7 0
Jalen Suggs S 22 12 5 6
Jamal Cain 12 9 1 0
Goga Bitadze 16 7 4 2
Anthony Black 27 7 5 3
Tristan da Silva 19 5 3 1
Noah Penda 6 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 9-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
16%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
8 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
27%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.9 4.9 8.1
2 Desmond Bane ORL 20.6 4.2 3.8
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 20.1 8.1 5.9
4 Brandon Miller CHA 19.8 4.4 2.9
5 Miles Bridges CHA 18.1 6.0 2.7
6 Coby White CHA 16.2 3.2 2.6
7 Franz Wagner ORL 14.9 3.1 2.7
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.3 4.2 6.1
9 Kon Knueppel CHA 14.0 5.2 2.8
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.7 6.5 1.5
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.7 3.4 1.9
12 Anthony Black ORL 8.7 3.1 1.9
13 Jamal Cain ORL 7.7 2.8 1.3
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.2 8.1 2.0
15 Grant Williams CHA 6.5 3.7 1.1
16 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.2 6.0 1.2
17 Sion James CHA 6.0 3.4 2.0
18 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 5.4 4.3 1.0
19 Jevon Carter ORL 5.1 1.4 1.4
20 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.7 3.1 0.5
21 Jett Howard ORL 3.7 0.9 0.5
22 Jase Richardson ORL 3.0 0.9 0.6
23 Liam McNeeley CHA 2.9 1.8 0.5
24 Moritz Wagner ORL 2.8 1.6 0.5
25 Josh Green CHA 2.7 1.1 0.7
26 Tre Mann CHA 2.6 0.7 0.5
27 Noah Penda ORL 1.8 0.9 0.8
28 Pat Connaughton CHA 1.6 0.8 0.4
29 Xavier Tillman CHA 1.5 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.