NBA games

ORL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
97–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2431192397
PHI28312030109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home PHI
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 40 34 3 3
Paolo Banchero S 36 18 5 4
Anthony Black 22 13 6 3
Franz Wagner S 29 12 4 3
Jamal Cain 15 5 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 5 11 1
Tristan da Silva 14 4 2 0
Jalen Suggs S 37 4 6 4
Goga Bitadze 15 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 42 31 2 6
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 40 19 3 1
VJ Edgecombe S 42 19 11 1
Paul George S 36 16 5 5
Andre Drummond 31 14 10 2
Quentin Grimes 22 4 4 2
Dominick Barlow 10 4 2 0
Adem Bona S 16 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Adem Bona · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Adem Bona makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Paul George PHI
8%
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
9 Adem Bona PHI
8%
10 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
24%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.1 4.3 6.2
2 Paul George PHI 22.3 5.7 4.0
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.1 9.1 6.2
4 Desmond Bane ORL 19.3 4.1 4.0
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.8 5.3 6.0
6 Franz Wagner ORL 15.7 3.7 2.8
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.0 4.3 6.3
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.8 6.3 1.7
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.7 6.6 1.5
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.9 3.5 2.2
11 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.5 3.4 2.1
12 Anthony Black ORL 9.5 3.3 2.1
13 Jamal Cain ORL 8.5 3.3 1.4
14 Trendon Watford PHI 7.3 3.2 2.6
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.6 6.4 1.2
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.9 6.1 1.7
17 Jevon Carter ORL 5.9 1.8 1.7
18 Dominick Barlow PHI 5.9 4.9 1.2
19 Dalen Terry PHI 5.0 1.8 1.7
20 Justin Edwards PHI 5.0 1.2 0.9
21 MarJon Beauchamp PHI 4.8 1.9 1.0
22 Adem Bona PHI 4.7 3.3 0.9
23 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 1.1 0.5
24 Jabari Walker PHI 3.9 1.7 0.9
25 Alex Morales ORL 3.5 1.5 1.0
26 Jase Richardson ORL 3.5 1.1 0.6
27 Moritz Wagner ORL 3.3 1.9 0.5
28 Colin Castleton ORL 2.7 2.2 0.4
29 Tyrese Martin PHI 2.6 1.3 1.0
30 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.2 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.