NBA games

GS @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
126–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS22313043126
LAC31302832121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAC
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 36 35 1 4
Gui Santos S 32 20 6 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 28 20 5 5
Brandin Podziemski S 41 17 7 2
Al Horford 22 14 3 0
De'Anthony Melton 23 7 5 3
Draymond Green S 35 7 6 9
Gary Payton II 24 6 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 30 23 3 2
Kawhi Leonard S 40 21 7 3
Darius Garland S 31 21 5 8
Brook Lopez S 37 17 5 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 13 2 1
John Collins 21 11 9 0
Kris Dunn S 32 7 3 10
Jordan Miller 15 5 2 2
Kobe Sanders 11 3 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gui Santos · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Gui Santos makes running layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kristaps Porzingis GS
11%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
3 Darius Garland LAC
9%
4 Brook Lopez LAC
8%
5 Stephen Curry GS
8%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
7 De'Anthony Melton GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Al Horford GS
7%
10 John Collins LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
32%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.9 6.5 3.9
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.2 3.6 4.4
3 Brandin Podziemski GS 20.7 4.2 3.5
4 Darius Garland LAC 19.9 3.1 6.5
5 Gui Santos GS 17.4 4.9 3.9
6 Kristaps Porzingis GS 15.6 5.9 2.3
7 Bennedict Mathurin LAC 14.0 4.5 3.3
8 John Collins LAC 13.0 5.6 1.7
9 Brook Lopez LAC 12.6 6.4 2.0
10 Jordan Miller LAC 11.7 3.1 3.0
11 Al Horford GS 10.8 4.4 2.8
12 Gary Payton II GS 10.2 4.7 1.5
13 Pat Spencer GS 10.0 3.3 3.8
14 De'Anthony Melton GS 9.8 3.8 3.5
15 Draymond Green GS 9.2 4.7 5.8
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 8.1 1.8 1.4
17 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 7.1 4.3 1.4
18 Isaiah Jackson LAC 7.0 5.0 1.3
19 Kris Dunn LAC 6.9 3.2 3.4
20 Seth Curry GS 5.8 1.4 0.9
21 Charles Bassey GS 5.2 4.1 0.5
22 Will Richard GS 5.2 2.2 1.1
23 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 4.7 1.6 1.4
24 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.9 2.2 0.8
25 Omer Yurtseven GS 2.7 2.5 0.5
26 Cam Christie LAC 2.1 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.