NBA games

MIA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
126–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIA2430293112126
CHA2626372513127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHA
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Davion Mitchell S 48 28 4 6
Andrew Wiggins S 42 27 7 3
Tyler Herro S 34 23 3 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 41 13 6 8
Kel'el Ware S 42 12 19 4
Norman Powell 19 11 2 1
Bam Adebayo S 11 6 3 1
Pelle Larsson 22 6 3 3
Simone Fontecchio 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 40 30 5 10
Miles Bridges S 43 28 9 2
Brandon Miller S 37 23 5 5
Coby White 26 19 5 3
Moussa Diabate S 36 8 14 1
Kon Knueppel S 34 6 5 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner 13 6 5 1
Grant Williams 18 5 2 0
Sion James 13 2 3 3
Josh Green 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Moussa Diabate assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
4 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
5 Moussa Diabate CHA
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
7 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
10 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
48%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
10%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.1 4.6 8.3
2 Brandon Miller CHA 19.5 4.5 2.8
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.2 4.7 4.3
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.9 10.0 5.0
5 Tyler Herro MIA 18.2 4.4 4.7
6 Miles Bridges CHA 16.9 5.7 2.8
7 Coby White CHA 16.3 3.2 2.8
8 Kon Knueppel CHA 16.3 5.7 3.7
9 Pelle Larsson MIA 15.0 4.3 3.5
10 Norman Powell MIA 14.9 3.3 2.1
11 Andrew Wiggins MIA 12.2 3.6 2.2
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.1 2.8 4.8
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.3 6.8 1.5
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.5 8.2 2.2
15 Grant Williams CHA 7.1 4.0 1.3
16 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 6.5 2.4 2.8
17 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.4 1.9 1.0
18 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 6.2 4.6 1.1
19 Sion James CHA 6.2 3.4 2.1
20 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.1 3.4 0.8
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.3 2.3 0.7
22 Liam McNeeley CHA 4.0 2.2 0.8
23 Tre Mann CHA 3.5 1.1 0.8
24 Josh Green CHA 3.4 1.3 0.8
25 Myron Gardner MIA 3.4 1.7 0.8
26 Dru Smith MIA 3.0 1.5 1.5
27 Jahmir Young MIA 2.5 0.9 0.6
28 Nikola Jovic MIA 2.4 1.1 0.5
29 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.2 1.0 0.5
30 Xavier Tillman CHA 2.0 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.