NBA games

POR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
114–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR31341831114
PHX33292028110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHX
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 41 7 12
Jrue Holiday S 38 21 4 4
Jerami Grant 19 16 2 0
Shaedon Sharpe 21 12 1 1
Scoot Henderson S 17 9 3 2
Toumani Camara S 36 8 4 0
Matisse Thybulle 13 3 0 0
Donovan Clingan S 29 2 11 4
Robert Williams III 16 2 7 1
Kris Murray 12 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 39 35 5 2
Devin Booker S 38 22 1 4
Dillon Brooks S 37 20 7 2
Jordan Goodwin S 29 12 4 0
Royce O'Neale 24 7 8 3
Collin Gillespie 20 5 4 0
Mark Williams S 22 4 4 2
Oso Ighodaro 23 3 1 6
Ryan Dunn 9 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jalen Green makes driving layup (Mark Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Jalen Green PHX
7%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
7%
4 Mark Williams PHX
7%
5 Deni Avdija POR
7%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
6%
7 Jerami Grant POR
6%
8 Oso Ighodaro PHX
6%
9 Jamaree Bouyea PHX
5%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
19%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.7 4.0 6.5
2 Deni Avdija POR 25.7 6.5 6.7
3 Jalen Green PHX 19.3 4.2 3.7
4 Jrue Holiday POR 19.1 5.2 5.6
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.9 4.0 3.3
6 Scoot Henderson POR 17.0 3.0 3.9
7 Toumani Camara POR 16.2 4.4 2.3
8 Jerami Grant POR 16.1 3.1 2.0
9 Dillon Brooks PHX 15.6 3.7 2.0
10 Donovan Clingan POR 11.0 9.6 1.6
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 9.1 3.4 3.2
12 Oso Ighodaro PHX 8.8 6.3 2.3
13 Mark Williams PHX 8.7 6.8 0.9
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.6 4.9 1.8
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 8.3 2.8 1.5
16 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.0 3.5 1.7
17 Kris Murray POR 7.1 3.2 2.1
18 Robert Williams III POR 6.7 6.7 1.0
19 Rasheer Fleming PHX 6.7 3.1 1.0
20 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.3 4.9 1.7
21 Vit Krejci POR 6.1 3.0 1.6
22 Khaman Maluach PHX 5.6 5.5 0.5
23 Haywood Highsmith PHX 5.5 1.9 1.0
24 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 5.1 1.6 1.7
25 Amir Coffey PHX 4.3 1.6 0.7
26 Blake Wesley POR 3.5 1.6 0.9
27 Yang Hansen POR 2.9 1.7 0.5
28 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.6 1.8 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.