NBA games

NY @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Scheduled
Tip-off

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home SA
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Player MIN PTS REB AST

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
7 Devin Vassell SA
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 OG Anunoby NY
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.7 3.9 6.3
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.3 9.5 3.4
3 Stephon Castle SA 19.7 5.0 5.9
4 OG Anunoby NY 18.8 4.7 2.3
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 16.4 10.2 4.4
6 Mikal Bridges NY 14.8 4.2 3.1
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 14.4 4.6 5.9
8 Dylan Harper SA 13.1 5.2 2.8
9 Devin Vassell SA 12.0 5.1 2.5
10 Josh Hart NY 12.0 8.4 4.6
11 Julian Champagnie SA 10.5 4.8 1.7
12 Landry Shamet NY 7.9 2.1 1.2
13 Keldon Johnson SA 6.2 2.5 0.9
14 Miles McBride NY 5.3 1.7 1.2
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.2 5.0 0.5
16 Jordan Clarkson NY 3.6 1.7 0.9
17 Jose Alvarado NY 3.5 1.4 1.0
18 Jeremy Sochan NY 3.5 1.9 0.7
19 Carter Bryant SA 2.8 1.1 0.5
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.6 3.6 0.5
21 Luke Kornet SA 2.3 2.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.