NBA games

NY @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
94–90
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY1324282994
SA2319301890

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home SA
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 41 45 3 3
Mikal Bridges S 39 14 2 4
Josh Hart S 39 13 11 2
OG Anunoby S 33 11 8 0
Landry Shamet 13 5 1 0
Mitchell Robinson 20 2 10 2
Jordan Clarkson 6 2 1 0
Karl-Anthony Towns S 23 2 10 1
Miles McBride 13 0 0 1
Ariel Hukporti 2 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dylan Harper 31 25 5 4
Victor Wembanyama S 38 19 14 2
Julian Champagnie S 31 14 7 1
Devin Vassell S 39 12 7 2
De'Aaron Fox S 37 7 0 5
Keldon Johnson 16 7 5 0
Stephon Castle S 32 6 5 4
Luke Kornet 10 0 2 0
Carter Bryant 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 9:44 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot running dunk (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
6 De'Aaron Fox SA
9%
7 Devin Vassell SA
8%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 OG Anunoby NY
8%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.7 3.9 6.3
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.3 9.5 3.4
3 Stephon Castle SA 19.7 5.0 5.9
4 OG Anunoby NY 18.8 4.7 2.3
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 16.4 10.2 4.4
6 Mikal Bridges NY 14.8 4.2 3.1
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 14.4 4.6 5.9
8 Dylan Harper SA 13.1 5.2 2.8
9 Josh Hart NY 12.0 8.4 4.6
10 Devin Vassell SA 12.0 5.1 2.5
11 Julian Champagnie SA 10.5 4.8 1.7
12 Landry Shamet NY 7.9 2.1 1.2
13 Keldon Johnson SA 6.2 2.5 0.9
14 Miles McBride NY 5.3 1.7 1.2
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.2 5.0 0.5
16 Jordan Clarkson NY 3.6 1.7 0.9
17 Jeremy Sochan NY 3.5 1.9 0.7
18 Jose Alvarado NY 3.5 1.4 1.0
19 Tyler Kolek NY 2.9 0.7 1.4
20 Carter Bryant SA 2.8 1.1 0.5
21 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.7 1.0 0.4
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.6 3.6 0.5
23 Luke Kornet SA 2.3 2.6 0.5
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.8 1.0 0.9
25 Harrison Barnes SA 1.7 0.9 0.3
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 1.7 0.6 0.3
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.5 0.6 0.6
28 Lindy Waters III SA 1.5 0.6 0.4
29 Mason Plumlee SA 0.9 1.1 0.3
30 Bismack Biyombo SA 0.9 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.