NBA games

SA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
106–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA41351416106
NY22272632107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NY
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 44 24 13 1
Dylan Harper 32 21 4 3
Devin Vassell S 40 18 5 4
De'Aaron Fox S 37 18 5 7
Stephon Castle S 26 13 5 5
Julian Champagnie S 33 5 5 3
Carter Bryant 5 5 1 0
Keldon Johnson 18 2 4 1
Luke Kornet 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 44 36 5 7
OG Anunoby S 41 33 4 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 26 13 10 2
Jose Alvarado 16 8 2 3
Mikal Bridges S 28 7 2 2
Josh Hart S 33 6 8 6
Mitchell Robinson 13 2 5 1
Jordan Clarkson 5 2 1 0
Miles McBride 7 0 0 0
Ariel Hukporti 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
5 Stephon Castle SA
11%
6 OG Anunoby NY
11%
7 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Devin Vassell SA
6%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
27%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.9 10.3 3.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.8 6.4
3 Stephon Castle SA 20.5 5.1 6.2
4 OG Anunoby NY 18.8 5.1 2.5
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.1 10.2 4.9
6 Mikal Bridges NY 16.3 4.5 3.1
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 14.3 4.5 5.8
8 Dylan Harper SA 13.4 5.7 3.1
9 Devin Vassell SA 12.2 5.2 2.4
10 Josh Hart NY 12.0 8.4 4.7
11 Julian Champagnie SA 10.8 5.3 1.4
12 Landry Shamet NY 7.9 1.9 1.2
13 Keldon Johnson SA 7.8 2.4 0.9
14 Miles McBride NY 5.7 1.9 1.4
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.6 4.6 0.5
16 Jeremy Sochan NY 4.2 2.4 0.9
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 4.1 2.0 0.9
18 Jose Alvarado NY 3.7 1.6 0.9
19 Carter Bryant SA 3.0 1.3 0.5
20 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 0.7 1.4
21 Luke Kornet SA 2.6 3.0 0.5
22 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.6 1.0 0.4
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 3.2 0.3
24 Harrison Barnes SA 1.9 1.0 0.3
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.8 1.0 0.9
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 1.6 0.6 0.3
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.4 0.6 0.6
28 Lindy Waters III SA 1.4 0.6 0.3
29 Mason Plumlee SA 0.8 1.0 0.3
30 Bismack Biyombo SA 0.8 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.