NBA games

SA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
115–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA33243523115
NY22422720111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NY
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 39 32 8 6
Stephon Castle S 38 23 5 5
Dylan Harper 32 13 9 4
De'Aaron Fox S 37 12 3 8
Julian Champagnie S 27 12 1 3
Devin Vassell S 38 11 4 0
Keldon Johnson 17 7 2 0
Carter Bryant 4 3 0 0
Luke Kornet 9 2 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 32 5 5
OG Anunoby S 38 28 5 1
Josh Hart S 35 16 9 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 11 8 1
Jordan Clarkson 13 10 3 1
Mitchell Robinson 7 5 4 0
Jose Alvarado 12 4 3 1
Landry Shamet 23 3 4 2
Mikal Bridges S 29 2 5 2
Miles McBride 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:42 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
3 OG Anunoby NY
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
5 Stephon Castle SA
11%
6 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
7 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
9%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
10 Devin Vassell SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
22%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.6 3.4 6.4
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.6 10.4 3.2
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.5 5.8 6.1
4 Mikal Bridges NY 18.4 4.2 3.5
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.0 10.1 5.2
6 OG Anunoby NY 17.0 5.6 2.4
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 15.7 4.5 5.5
8 Dylan Harper SA 13.6 5.6 2.9
9 Devin Vassell SA 12.1 5.2 2.6
10 Josh Hart NY 11.3 7.9 4.6
11 Julian Champagnie SA 10.9 5.5 1.5
12 Landry Shamet NY 7.5 1.6 1.1
13 Keldon Johnson SA 6.3 2.1 0.9
14 Miles McBride NY 5.8 1.8 1.5
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.2 4.6 0.5
16 Jose Alvarado NY 3.4 1.4 0.9
17 Tyler Kolek NY 2.9 0.7 1.4
18 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.8 1.8 0.6
19 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.7 1.0 0.4
20 Jordan Clarkson NY 2.6 1.2 0.6
21 Carter Bryant SA 2.5 1.4 0.5
22 Luke Kornet SA 2.4 3.0 0.4
23 Harrison Barnes SA 2.3 1.2 0.5
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 3.2 0.3
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.8 1.0 0.9
26 Kelly Olynyk SA 1.6 0.6 0.3
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.4 0.6 0.6
28 Lindy Waters III SA 1.4 0.5 0.3
29 Mason Plumlee SA 0.8 1.0 0.3
30 Bismack Biyombo SA 0.8 0.5 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.