NBA games

NY @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
105–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY25312821105
SA34182329104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home SA
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 21 13 4
Jalen Brunson S 38 20 5 6
Mikal Bridges S 41 20 6 6
OG Anunoby S 37 17 4 3
Landry Shamet 30 13 2 2
Mitchell Robinson 14 7 3 0
Miles McBride 18 5 2 2
Jose Alvarado 10 2 3 2
Josh Hart S 18 0 6 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 40 29 9 2
De'Aaron Fox S 34 20 3 5
Dylan Harper 32 15 6 3
Devin Vassell S 38 14 9 5
Stephon Castle S 28 14 4 4
Julian Champagnie S 36 8 4 1
Keldon Johnson 16 3 4 2
Luke Kornet 8 1 3 0
Carter Bryant 3 0 0 0
Harrison Barnes 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
12%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
5 OG Anunoby NY
11%
6 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
10 Devin Vassell SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
23%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.8 3.3 6.4
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.9 10.8 3.5
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.7 5.9 6.6
4 Mikal Bridges NY 17.9 4.3 3.3
5 OG Anunoby NY 17.2 5.9 2.2
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 17.1 10.0 5.5
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 15.6 4.5 5.5
8 Dylan Harper SA 13.4 5.8 2.9
9 Josh Hart NY 12.3 8.1 4.5
10 Devin Vassell SA 12.1 4.6 2.6
11 Julian Champagnie SA 11.1 5.6 1.6
12 Keldon Johnson SA 8.1 2.2 0.9
13 Landry Shamet NY 7.3 1.5 1.0
14 Miles McBride NY 6.0 1.8 1.3
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.7 5.0 0.5
16 Jose Alvarado NY 3.8 1.3 0.9
17 Jordan Clarkson NY 3.4 1.6 0.8
18 Carter Bryant SA 3.2 1.9 0.7
19 Luke Kornet SA 2.8 3.0 0.5
20 Harrison Barnes SA 2.8 1.4 0.6
21 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 0.7 1.3
22 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.7 1.8 0.6
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.6 1.0 0.4
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 3.2 0.3
25 Kelly Olynyk SA 1.8 0.7 0.3
26 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.8 1.0 0.9
27 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.7 0.6 0.6
28 Lindy Waters III SA 1.7 0.6 0.4
29 Mason Plumlee SA 1.1 1.1 0.3
30 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.0 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.