NBA games

NY @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
105–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY19292829105
SA2728211995

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home SA
91% 9%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 30 3 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 18 12 4
OG Anunoby S 31 17 3 0
Landry Shamet 33 13 1 0
Mikal Bridges S 28 9 3 3
Jose Alvarado 11 7 4 1
Miles McBride 19 6 1 4
Josh Hart S 27 3 15 6
Mitchell Robinson 13 2 6 0
Jordan Clarkson 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 38 26 12 2
Stephon Castle S 34 17 8 3
Dylan Harper 28 16 8 1
Julian Champagnie S 31 16 10 1
Devin Vassell S 36 9 9 3
De'Aaron Fox S 38 7 4 5
Keldon Johnson 8 3 0 0
Carter Bryant 4 1 0 0
Luke Kornet 10 0 1 0
Harrison Barnes 12 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
12%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
7 OG Anunoby NY
9%
8 Josh Hart NY
8%
9 Devin Vassell SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.1 6.6
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.1 10.5 3.3
3 Stephon Castle SA 21.9 5.7 6.3
4 OG Anunoby NY 18.0 6.1 2.1
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.7 3.9 2.7
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 16.2 9.8 5.6
7 De'Aaron Fox SA 16.1 4.2 5.4
8 Dylan Harper SA 13.9 5.9 2.9
9 Devin Vassell SA 12.0 4.1 2.5
10 Josh Hart NY 11.7 6.8 4.1
11 Julian Champagnie SA 10.6 5.0 1.4
12 Keldon Johnson SA 7.8 2.4 1.0
13 Landry Shamet NY 4.4 0.8 0.6
14 Miles McBride NY 4.1 1.4 0.9
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 3.6 4.6 0.3
16 Jose Alvarado NY 2.8 0.8 0.6
17 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 0.7 1.3
18 Jeremy Sochan NY 2.7 1.8 0.6
19 Luke Kornet SA 2.6 3.3 0.3
20 Jordan Clarkson NY 2.6 1.0 0.5
21 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.6 1.0 0.4
22 Carter Bryant SA 2.3 1.7 0.6
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.2 3.4 0.3
24 Harrison Barnes SA 2.0 1.0 0.4
25 Kelly Olynyk SA 1.9 0.7 0.3
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.8 0.7 0.7
27 Lindy Waters III SA 1.8 0.7 0.4
28 Mohamed Diawara NY 1.8 1.0 0.9
29 Mason Plumlee SA 1.2 1.2 0.3
30 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.1 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.