DAL @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
99–123
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 31 | 20 | 19 | 29 | 99 |
| MIL | 38 | 27 | 25 | 33 | 123 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL
away
home
MIL
54%
46%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg S | 32 | 19 | 10 | 3 |
| Brandon Williams | 26 | 18 | 2 | 2 |
| John Poulakidas | 28 | 11 | 2 | 1 |
| Ryan Nembhard S | 22 | 9 | 0 | 4 |
| Khris Middleton S | 22 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| Moussa Cisse | 22 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| AJ Johnson | 16 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| Daniel Gafford S | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Tyler Smith | 20 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| Dwight Powell | 15 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Kyle Kuzma ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Cooper Flagg
DAL
11%
2
Daniel Gafford
DAL
11%
3
Ryan Rollins
MIL
9%
4
Kyle Kuzma
MIL
8%
5
Jericho Sims
MIL
8%
6
Gary Trent Jr.
MIL
7%
7
Ousmane Dieng
MIL
7%
8
Myles Turner
MIL
7%
9
Andre Jackson Jr.
MIL
7%
10
Max Christie
DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
16%
Layup
40%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cooper Flagg | DAL | 24.1 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| 2 | Ryan Rollins | MIL | 22.3 | 4.3 | 7.1 |
| 3 | Daniel Gafford | DAL | 15.5 | 10.4 | 2.0 |
| 4 | Kyle Kuzma | MIL | 13.7 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| 5 | Ousmane Dieng | MIL | 11.8 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| 6 | Brandon Williams | DAL | 11.1 | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| 7 | Max Christie | DAL | 10.8 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 8 | Khris Middleton | DAL | 9.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 9 | Myles Turner | MIL | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| 10 | Gary Trent Jr. | MIL | 9.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 11 | Taurean Prince | MIL | 9.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| 12 | Marvin Bagley III | DAL | 8.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 |
| 13 | AJ Green | MIL | 8.6 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| 14 | Ryan Nembhard | DAL | 7.0 | 2.7 | 5.6 |
| 15 | Jericho Sims | MIL | 6.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 |
| 16 | Pete Nance | MIL | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 17 | John Poulakidas | DAL | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 18 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 19 | Dwight Powell | DAL | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| 20 | Moussa Cisse | DAL | 3.8 | 5.3 | 0.4 |
| 21 | Tyler Smith | DAL | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 22 | AJ Johnson | DAL | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.