NBA games

DEN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
118–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN30303127118
MEM31293926125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MEM
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 29 14 9
Christian Braun S 41 26 7 5
Cameron Johnson S 33 20 6 3
Jamal Murray S 41 19 8 12
Tim Hardaway Jr. 28 11 2 2
Spencer Jones S 27 6 5 0
Jonas Valanciunas 6 4 3 0
Julian Strawther 6 2 0 1
Bruce Brown 20 1 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ty Jerome S 25 21 9 9
Olivier-Maxence Prosper S 23 19 1 0
GG Jackson S 26 16 6 0
Cedric Coward S 25 15 7 1
Taylor Hendricks 24 13 2 1
Jaylen Wells S 25 11 5 0
Cam Spencer 20 8 1 0
Javon Small 20 8 4 2
Tyler Burton 13 5 3 0
Walter Clayton Jr. 20 4 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 7-foot turnaround jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 GG Jackson MEM
13%
2 Christian Braun DEN
13%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Ty Jerome MEM
10%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
7 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM
8%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
9 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM
8%
10 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.5 12.8 11.2
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.6 4.7 6.2
3 Ty Jerome MEM 21.0 3.0 5.9
4 GG Jackson MEM 17.9 6.1 2.3
5 Christian Braun DEN 15.3 5.7 3.0
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 15.3 3.2 2.1
7 Javon Small MEM 14.9 4.2 5.2
8 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 13.2 4.7 2.0
9 Taylor Hendricks MEM 13.1 5.1 2.0
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.8 3.0 2.0
11 Cameron Johnson DEN 12.3 4.1 2.3
12 Cam Spencer MEM 12.1 2.9 4.8
13 Cedric Coward MEM 11.7 5.6 2.8
14 Walter Clayton Jr. MEM 10.9 2.2 6.5
15 Bruce Brown DEN 8.1 3.2 2.0
16 Julian Strawther DEN 7.1 1.9 1.1
17 Spencer Jones DEN 6.4 4.1 1.1
18 Tyler Burton MEM 5.3 3.4 1.1
19 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 5.1 3.7 1.0
20 Tyus Jones DEN 4.7 1.5 2.1
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.1 1.5 0.9
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 2.0 0.7
23 David Roddy DEN 2.7 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.