NBA games

GS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
111–85
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS24233826111
MIN1927172285

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIN
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 28 26 2 7
Moses Moody S 28 19 8 2
Brandin Podziemski S 22 12 5 6
De'Anthony Melton 21 12 3 4
Will Richard 24 10 2 1
Al Horford S 23 10 5 2
Gui Santos 21 7 6 2
Quinten Post 16 5 4 0
Buddy Hield 17 4 2 0
LJ Cryer 3 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 32 11 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 22 7 0
Julius Randle S 35 11 5 6
Bones Hyland 16 5 1 3
Rudy Gobert S 24 4 5 0
Rob Dillingham 5 3 1 0
Jaden McDaniels S 28 3 3 1
Joe Ingles 5 3 0 1
Mike Conley 16 2 3 1
Naz Reid 25 0 10 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 13-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
14%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
4 Julius Randle MIN
12%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Draymond Green GS
8%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Gui Santos GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
32%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.5 5.0 4.4
2 Julius Randle MIN 24.1 6.7 4.9
3 Stephen Curry GS 23.9 3.9 6.5
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.9 5.2 3.8
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.3 6.1 3.0
6 De'Anthony Melton GS 14.1 3.7 2.3
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.5 4.4 4.9
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.7 4.0 3.2
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.6 11.1 1.8
10 Draymond Green GS 10.2 4.7 5.0
11 Moses Moody GS 9.1 2.4 1.4
12 Al Horford GS 7.5 5.9 2.2
13 Quinten Post GS 7.3 3.2 1.1
14 Gary Payton II GS 7.2 3.9 1.3
15 Buddy Hield GS 7.2 2.3 1.0
16 Bones Hyland MIN 7.0 1.8 3.1
17 Mike Conley MIN 5.6 1.6 2.4
18 Gui Santos GS 5.2 2.6 1.3
19 Will Richard GS 4.7 1.8 1.7
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.3 2.4 1.0
21 Joan Beringer MIN 4.2 2.8 0.7
22 LJ Cryer GS 3.3 0.8 0.8
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.7 1.7 0.4
24 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.7 1.0 1.1
25 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 1.2 0.4
26 Pat Spencer GS 2.5 1.0 2.2
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.5 0.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.