NBA games

MIA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
116–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA34282925116
CHI31203428113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHI
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 30 21 0 1
Bam Adebayo S 34 20 12 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 32 19 10 6
Pelle Larsson S 29 15 6 3
Kel'el Ware 12 12 4 2
Dru Smith 23 11 5 5
Andrew Wiggins S 33 10 3 2
Nikola Jovic 17 8 4 1
Kasparas Jakucionis S 13 0 3 4
Simone Fontecchio 18 0 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu 31 23 7 5
Matas Buzelis S 34 16 9 4
Nikola Vucevic S 37 15 10 3
Kevin Huerter 33 15 10 3
Coby White S 32 14 4 8
Jalen Smith S 15 11 5 0
Dalen Terry 15 8 4 2
Isaac Okoro S 26 8 2 0
Julian Phillips 5 3 0 0
Patrick Williams 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell MIA
14%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
14%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
12%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
12%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
6 Pelle Larsson MIA
11%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
9%
8 Coby White CHI
9%
9 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA
8%
10 Simone Fontecchio MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
24%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.1 9.4 4.1
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.7 9.1 4.9
3 Coby White CHI 20.3 4.2 5.5
4 Norman Powell MIA 18.8 4.1 2.9
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.7 5.8 3.6
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.4 3.5 3.7
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.3 5.4 3.1
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.9 5.0 4.7
9 Jalen Smith CHI 12.8 8.7 1.7
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 11.9 4.5 3.3
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.0 3.3 1.9
12 Kevin Huerter CHI 8.7 3.2 3.0
13 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.5 4.1 1.5
14 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.3 5.8 1.1
15 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.0 3.3 1.4
16 Patrick Williams CHI 6.2 2.6 1.2
17 Dru Smith MIA 6.1 2.9 2.5
18 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 5.8 2.6 2.5
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.3 1.1 0.8
20 Dalen Terry CHI 4.1 2.1 0.8
21 Julian Phillips CHI 3.6 1.6 0.7
22 Myron Gardner MIA 3.4 2.3 0.8
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.1 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.