NBA games

LAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
116–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL31312430116
PHX36261537114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHX
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 29 3 6
LeBron James S 36 26 3 4
Deandre Ayton S 30 20 13 0
Jaxson Hayes 18 12 9 2
Marcus Smart S 32 8 4 6
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 7 7 0
Jake LaRavia 21 6 8 1
Gabe Vincent 19 5 0 0
Rui Hachimura S 31 3 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 31 27 6 7
Mark Williams S 29 20 6 1
Dillon Brooks S 25 18 1 0
Grayson Allen S 35 13 2 7
Royce O'Neale 24 12 5 1
Collin Gillespie S 37 10 3 6
Ryan Dunn 17 5 4 2
Jordan Goodwin 18 5 3 2
Jamaree Bouyea 6 2 1 0
Oso Ighodaro 16 2 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes alley oop dunk shot (Marcus Smart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
2 Devin Booker PHX
14%
3 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
5 Mark Williams PHX
11%
6 LeBron James LAL
10%
7 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
10 Collin Gillespie PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
10%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 30.0 8.2 8.1
2 Devin Booker PHX 22.5 4.1 6.6
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.4 3.6 2.4
4 LeBron James LAL 19.0 6.1 7.0
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 18.8 3.8 4.7
6 Grayson Allen PHX 16.5 2.8 3.6
7 Mark Williams PHX 14.6 7.7 1.7
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 13.6 9.5 1.2
9 Marcus Smart LAL 12.0 2.9 2.9
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.6 4.4 2.1
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.7 3.7 0.9
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.4 4.5 3.0
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.9 3.7 1.8
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.8 1.3 1.3
15 Jake LaRavia LAL 5.8 2.6 1.1
16 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 5.7 1.3 1.4
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.6 3.7 2.1
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.1 3.8 0.7
19 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.9 1.6 0.7
20 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 4.8 1.0 1.0
21 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 3.5 3.3 0.9
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 2.8 1.4 0.5
23 Nick Richards PHX 2.6 3.0 0.6
24 Adou Thiero LAL 2.0 1.0 0.4
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.7 1.1 0.4
26 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.