NBA games

TOR @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
106–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR23232832106
MIA2230251996

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIA
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 38 28 5 5
Scottie Barnes S 32 17 10 6
Immanuel Quickley S 34 15 4 4
Sandro Mamukelashvili 19 11 7 0
Gradey Dick 15 10 2 0
Jamal Shead 23 8 3 10
Jakob Poeltl S 29 8 8 2
Ochai Agbaji S 22 5 4 2
Collin Murray-Boyles 15 4 2 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 13 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 33 20 10 2
Norman Powell S 34 20 3 4
Davion Mitchell S 32 12 4 4
Dru Smith 20 11 3 2
Andrew Wiggins S 32 10 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 30 10 4 4
Kel'el Ware 19 6 13 0
Keshad Johnson 13 4 2 0
Simone Fontecchio S 26 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
5 Norman Powell MIA
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Scottie Barnes TOR
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
42%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.5 6.0 4.1
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.8 8.3 5.9
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.3 5.1 2.6
4 Norman Powell MIA 22.2 4.0 2.9
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.5 3.6 6.3
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.3 9.7 2.5
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.9 5.1 2.8
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.4 4.7 4.5
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.7 9.6 0.9
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.8 8.4 2.6
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.4 3.0 7.0
12 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.4 4.7 1.3
13 Jamal Shead TOR 7.5 2.1 4.6
14 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.4 2.7 1.1
15 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.7 2.2 3.1
16 Simone Fontecchio MIA 6.5 2.7 1.8
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.4 3.2 2.5
18 Dru Smith MIA 5.1 2.9 1.5
19 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 5.0 2.7 1.3
20 Gradey Dick TOR 4.2 1.4 0.7
21 Ochai Agbaji TOR 3.6 2.0 0.6
22 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 3.3 0.8 2.8
23 Jamison Battle TOR 2.6 1.1 0.4
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 2.4 0.4
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.8 0.3
26 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.6 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.