NBA games

STARS @ STRIPES

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
47–21
Final
Q1T
STARS4747
STRIPES2121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 2 (STRIPES) / 2 (STARS) games this season
STARS away
home STRIPES
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 9 9 2 1
Chet Holmgren 6 8 2 0
Anthony Edwards S 8 8 4 2
Jalen Duren S 7 6 4 0
Scottie Barnes 6 6 4 1
Devin Booker S 9 5 3 2
Jalen Johnson 6 5 3 0
Cade Cunningham S 9 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell 6 6 1 0
LeBron James S 6 5 4 0
Jaylen Brown S 12 4 2 1
Jalen Brunson S 12 3 2 1
De'Aaron Fox 6 2 1 2
Kawhi Leonard S 12 1 1 1
Kevin Durant S 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 28-foot running jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey STARS
11%
2 Kawhi Leonard STRIPES
11%
3 Jaylen Brown STRIPES
10%
4 Jalen Duren STARS
9%
5 Jalen Brunson STRIPES
9%
6 Kevin Durant STRIPES
9%
7 LeBron James STRIPES
9%
8 Stephen Curry STRIPES
8%
9 Devin Booker STARS
8%
10 Cade Cunningham STARS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
36%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram STRIPES 12.5 2.0 0.9
2 Devin Booker STARS 11.3 2.4 2.2
3 Jalen Duren STARS 10.7 5.6 0.7
4 Jalen Brunson STRIPES 10.7 2.1 3.0
5 Chet Holmgren STARS 10.6 4.2 0.5
6 LeBron James STRIPES 10.3 2.7 3.5
7 Kawhi Leonard STRIPES 10.0 4.0 1.4
8 Kevin Durant STRIPES 9.8 1.9 1.6
9 Scottie Barnes STARS 9.8 6.1 2.7
10 Tyrese Maxey STARS 9.5 1.9 2.6
11 Jaylen Brown STRIPES 9.3 3.4 1.2
12 Jalen Johnson STARS 9.2 5.8 3.4
13 Anthony Edwards STARS 8.9 2.0 0.9
14 De'Aaron Fox STRIPES 8.5 1.0 3.8
15 Cade Cunningham STARS 8.2 2.3 3.6
16 Donovan Mitchell STRIPES 7.9 0.9 3.4
17 Stephen Curry STRIPES 7.0 1.8 3.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.