NBA games

WORLD @ STRIPES

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
45–48
Final
Q1T
WORLD4545
STRIPES4848

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 1 (STRIPES) / 1 (WORLD) games this season
WORLD away
home STRIPES
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 10 19 2 0
Jamal Murray S 10 8 2 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 10 6 2 0
Pascal Siakam S 10 6 3 1
Norman Powell 7 5 2 1
Alperen Sengun 6 1 1 2
Deni Avdija S 7 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 12 31 3 0
Jalen Brunson S 8 8 1 2
Kevin Durant S 12 7 1 1
LeBron James S 8 2 2 4
Donovan Mitchell 4 0 0 0
De'Aaron Fox 4 0 0 0
Brandon Ingram 4 0 1 0
Jaylen Brown S 8 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot running jump shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo WORLD
18%
2 Kawhi Leonard STRIPES
9%
3 Jaylen Brown STRIPES
8%
4 Jamal Murray WORLD
8%
5 Luka Doncic WORLD
7%
6 Kevin Durant STRIPES
7%
7 LeBron James STRIPES
7%
8 Stephen Curry STRIPES
7%
9 Deni Avdija WORLD
6%
10 Victor Wembanyama WORLD
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
13%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander WORLD 15.4 3.1 2.2
2 Karl-Anthony Towns WORLD 12.2 8.4 1.7
3 Brandon Ingram STRIPES 11.4 2.4 1.0
4 Luka Doncic WORLD 11.3 6.2 2.5
5 Alperen Sengun WORLD 11.1 8.0 3.2
6 Nikola Jokic WORLD 11.0 9.1 4.9
7 Deni Avdija WORLD 11.0 3.7 2.1
8 Giannis Antetokounmpo WORLD 10.9 8.7 2.0
9 LeBron James STRIPES 10.2 2.6 3.2
10 Kawhi Leonard STRIPES 10.0 4.0 1.8
11 Jamal Murray WORLD 9.8 2.6 4.4
12 Victor Wembanyama WORLD 9.5 8.4 0.6
13 Jaylen Brown STRIPES 9.4 3.9 1.4
14 Donovan Mitchell STRIPES 9.4 1.2 2.5
15 Kevin Durant STRIPES 9.3 2.2 1.6
16 Norman Powell WORLD 9.3 1.6 0.6
17 Jalen Brunson STRIPES 9.3 2.1 3.2
18 Pascal Siakam WORLD 9.1 3.6 1.4
19 De'Aaron Fox STRIPES 8.7 0.7 4.1
20 Stephen Curry STRIPES 6.9 1.7 3.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.