NBA games

STARS @ STRIPES

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
40–42
Final
Q1T
STARS4040
STRIPES4242

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 0 (STRIPES) / 1 (STARS) games this season
STARS away
home STRIPES
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 9 11 3 1
Cade Cunningham S 9 11 3 4
Jalen Duren S 5 7 3 0
Jalen Johnson 6 5 1 1
Devin Booker S 9 2 5 2
Tyrese Maxey S 8 2 0 0
Scottie Barnes 7 2 1 1
Chet Holmgren 7 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 9 11 3 0
LeBron James S 7 8 1 1
Donovan Mitchell 7 6 0 3
De'Aaron Fox 4 5 0 1
Kevin Durant S 10 5 1 1
Kawhi Leonard S 10 5 5 2
Jalen Brunson S 7 2 0 1
Brandon Ingram 5 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson STRIPES
8%
2 Kawhi Leonard STRIPES
8%
3 Anthony Edwards STARS
8%
4 Jalen Duren STARS
8%
5 Jaylen Brown STRIPES
7%
6 Kevin Durant STRIPES
7%
7 Donovan Mitchell STRIPES
7%
8 Tyrese Maxey STARS
7%
9 Brandon Ingram STRIPES
7%
10 LeBron James STRIPES
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
36%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson STARS 24.4 11.1 8.6
2 Anthony Edwards STARS 24.2 5.0 4.0
3 Tyrese Maxey STARS 24.0 4.0 6.3
4 Cade Cunningham STARS 23.5 5.1 8.6
5 Devin Booker STARS 23.1 4.0 6.0
6 Scottie Barnes STARS 17.6 9.2 5.5
7 Jalen Duren STARS 15.1 8.2 1.8
8 Chet Holmgren STARS 13.7 8.4 1.6
9 Donovan Mitchell STRIPES 12.0 1.5 2.6
10 Jaylen Brown STRIPES 11.8 4.5 2.0
11 Kawhi Leonard STRIPES 10.9 3.9 2.0
12 LeBron James STRIPES 9.4 3.3 3.7
13 De'Aaron Fox STRIPES 9.2 1.0 4.2
14 Brandon Ingram STRIPES 9.2 2.3 1.5
15 Kevin Durant STRIPES 8.7 2.6 1.6
16 Jalen Brunson STRIPES 7.2 1.8 3.4
17 Stephen Curry STRIPES 6.8 1.7 3.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.