NBA games

WORLD @ STARS

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
3537
Final
Q1Q2T
WORLD32335
STARS32537

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 0 (STARS) / 0 (WORLD) games this season
WORLD away
home STARS
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 10 14 6 0
Karl-Anthony Towns 8 10 1 0
Deni Avdija S 8 5 0 2
Pascal Siakam 8 4 1 1
Luka Doncic S 5 2 0 2
Jamal Murray S 11 0 2 4
Alperen Sengun 3 0 4 2
Nikola Jokic S 5 0 2 0
Norman Powell 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 9 13 2 0
Devin Booker S 10 5 1 4
Tyrese Maxey S 7 4 3 2
Cade Cunningham S 10 4 3 1
Jalen Johnson 7 4 0 1
Scottie Barnes 8 3 5 2
Chet Holmgren 5 2 1 0
Jalen Duren S 8 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:54 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 2-foot dunk (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo WORLD
12%
2 Scottie Barnes STARS
6%
3 Jalen Duren STARS
6%
4 Alperen Sengun WORLD
6%
5 Chet Holmgren STARS
6%
6 Jalen Johnson STARS
6%
7 Pascal Siakam WORLD
5%
8 Anthony Edwards STARS
5%
9 Tyrese Maxey STARS
5%
10 Devin Booker STARS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
13%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander WORLD 29.9 4.8 6.3
2 Nikola Jokic WORLD 28.5 12.7 11.0
3 Luka Doncic WORLD 28.1 8.1 8.3
4 Anthony Edwards STARS 25.9 5.7 4.3
5 Giannis Antetokounmpo WORLD 25.5 10.3 5.3
6 Cade Cunningham STARS 25.4 5.2 9.5
7 Jalen Johnson STARS 25.3 12.2 8.8
8 Jamal Murray WORLD 24.6 4.6 8.4
9 Tyrese Maxey STARS 24.3 3.7 6.5
10 Devin Booker STARS 23.7 4.0 6.5
11 Pascal Siakam WORLD 23.6 6.0 4.4
12 Deni Avdija WORLD 23.5 7.0 5.4
13 Victor Wembanyama WORLD 22.5 11.4 2.9
14 Alperen Sengun WORLD 20.5 10.8 5.9
15 Scottie Barnes STARS 19.7 9.6 5.9
16 Norman Powell WORLD 18.9 3.7 2.7
17 Jalen Duren STARS 17.1 9.4 1.9
18 Karl-Anthony Towns WORLD 16.7 11.0 3.1
19 Chet Holmgren STARS 15.9 9.9 1.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.