NBA games

MEM @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
121–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM25313431121
LAC27212827103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAC
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 31 4 4
Cam Spencer 30 27 3 6
Jaylen Wells S 30 16 5 3
Cedric Coward S 23 12 2 2
Ja Morant S 21 12 3 4
Jock Landale 27 8 4 3
Vince Williams Jr. 18 8 1 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 23 4 7 6
Santi Aldama S 31 3 2 2
Jahmai Mashack 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 21 4 3
Kris Dunn S 27 17 1 5
James Harden S 31 13 3 6
John Collins S 26 10 2 1
Jordan Miller 22 10 6 3
Kobe Brown 25 9 4 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 19 7 3 3
Ivica Zubac S 33 6 13 2
Kobe Sanders 13 5 2 0
Cam Christie 4 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"John Collins makes 3-foot two point shot (Kris Dunn assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
3 Ja Morant MEM
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
6 John Collins LAC
9%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
8 James Harden LAC
8%
9 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
24%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 25.8 4.2 7.9
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 24.1 5.7 3.5
3 Ja Morant MEM 20.5 4.3 9.1
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.5 11.2 3.7
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.1 4.8 3.0
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 16.4 3.9 2.1
7 Santi Aldama MEM 16.0 5.9 3.4
8 Cam Spencer MEM 15.8 2.7 5.2
9 Cedric Coward MEM 13.6 6.0 2.8
10 John Collins LAC 12.4 4.6 1.4
11 Jock Landale MEM 10.4 5.4 1.4
12 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.3 2.9 2.9
13 Kris Dunn LAC 9.9 2.8 3.3
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.0 4.1 5.9
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 7.6 2.0 3.3
16 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.0 1.9 1.4
17 Jordan Miller LAC 5.8 2.0 0.6
18 Brook Lopez LAC 4.0 1.2 0.6
19 Kobe Brown LAC 3.6 1.6 0.9
20 Cam Christie LAC 2.7 1.7 0.5
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 2.6 1.7 0.4
22 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 2.0 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.