NBA games

HOU @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
125–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
HOU302135318125
DEN2434312811128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DEN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 42 33 10 10
Kevin Durant S 44 25 5 7
Josh Okogie S 28 16 4 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 43 16 10 4
Reed Sheppard 32 14 3 1
Amen Thompson S 44 14 12 6
Aaron Holiday 10 3 0 1
Steven Adams 16 3 0 0
Clint Capela 7 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 42 39 15 10
Jamal Murray S 43 35 3 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. 40 13 1 2
Cameron Johnson S 43 13 3 2
Spencer Jones S 41 11 3 0
Jonas Valanciunas 14 8 3 1
Peyton Watson S 6 5 0 0
Bruce Brown 27 2 9 4
Zeke Nnaji 9 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Okogie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Josh Okogie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant HOU
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
13%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
5 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Cameron Johnson DEN
8%
8 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
9 Jamal Murray DEN
7%
10 Josh Okogie HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
37%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.0 10.6 9.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.8 3.9 7.2
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.5 8.7 6.9
4 Kevin Durant HOU 25.2 4.6 5.3
5 Amen Thompson HOU 20.5 8.0 5.7
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.9 6.3 2.6
7 Cameron Johnson DEN 15.2 4.0 2.5
8 Peyton Watson DEN 14.8 5.9 2.0
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.5 4.0 3.6
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.5 2.7 1.6
11 Aaron Holiday HOU 10.8 2.0 1.6
12 Bruce Brown DEN 7.7 3.0 2.5
13 Spencer Jones DEN 7.6 3.5 1.1
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.3 4.1 1.3
15 Steven Adams HOU 5.9 7.8 1.3
16 Josh Okogie HOU 5.0 3.2 0.9
17 Clint Capela HOU 3.9 4.8 0.5
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 1.3 0.6
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.0 1.3 1.2
20 Julian Strawther DEN 2.8 1.0 0.5
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.5 1.9 0.4
22 Jeff Green HOU 2.1 0.6 0.4
23 JD Davison HOU 2.0 0.6 0.7
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.9 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.