NBA games

DAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
133–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DAL433224304133
UTAH3734213711140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home UTAH
80% 20%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 42 42 7 6
P.J. Washington S 39 25 14 0
Naji Marshall S 36 15 3 1
Ryan Nembhard S 38 14 3 11
Klay Thompson 21 12 2 0
Max Christie 28 8 5 3
Dwight Powell 24 7 9 0
Moussa Cisse 13 6 7 0
Jaden Hardy 11 2 2 1
Daniel Gafford S 13 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 41 37 5 6
Lauri Markkanen S 40 33 16 5
Kyle Filipowski S 38 25 9 1
Cody Williams 22 11 1 2
Taylor Hendricks 18 11 4 1
Isaiah Collier 31 10 3 8
Ace Bailey S 24 7 2 3
Brice Sensabaugh S 22 4 2 3
Walter Clayton Jr. 13 2 4 2
Kyle Anderson 15 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ace Bailey · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Ace Bailey makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cooper Flagg DAL
16%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
15%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
14%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
13%
5 Naji Marshall DAL
12%
6 Ace Bailey UTAH
11%
7 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
10%
8 Ryan Nembhard DAL
9%
9 Daniel Gafford DAL
0%
10 Dwight Powell DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
33%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Keyonte George UTAH 25.0 4.5 6.8
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.5 7.0 2.5
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.0 6.9 4.5
4 P.J. Washington DAL 17.0 7.1 2.3
5 Naji Marshall DAL 14.7 5.0 3.3
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 12.3 6.7 2.4
7 Ace Bailey UTAH 12.2 3.7 2.0
8 Max Christie DAL 11.5 3.2 1.5
9 Brandon Williams DAL 11.2 3.0 5.2
10 Klay Thompson DAL 11.1 3.1 1.4
11 Ryan Nembhard DAL 9.8 2.5 5.5
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.8 7.0 1.5
13 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.7 2.7 2.2
14 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.7 2.5 1.2
15 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 7.1 1.8 3.7
16 Kevin Love UTAH 6.9 4.5 1.3
17 Isaiah Collier UTAH 6.2 1.6 3.9
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.8 1.0 0.6
19 Kyle Anderson UTAH 4.8 2.2 2.7
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.2 2.6 0.5
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.6 2.8 1.0
22 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.3 2.9 0.3
23 Cody Williams UTAH 2.1 1.2 0.4
24 Caleb Martin DAL 1.7 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.