NBA games

NO @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
114104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO21312438114
CHI26212829104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home CHI
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jeremiah Fears S 28 20 2 3
Trey Murphy III S 34 20 10 2
Zion Williamson 27 18 6 3
Jordan Poole 27 16 2 4
Saddiq Bey S 25 10 6 1
Herbert Jones S 20 10 2 1
Bryce McGowens 14 5 3 0
Yves Missi 11 4 8 0
Karlo Matkovic 12 4 4 0
Derik Queen S 25 4 8 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 28 20 5 5
Kevin Huerter 24 16 3 0
Nikola Vucevic S 31 12 8 4
Josh Giddey S 24 11 7 5
Dalen Terry 13 9 3 0
Matas Buzelis S 24 9 6 3
Patrick Williams 24 8 4 2
Tre Jones 24 6 2 5
Jalen Smith 12 6 0 1
Isaac Okoro S 24 5 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes 14-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
2 Derik Queen NO
10%
3 Zion Williamson NO
10%
4 Saddiq Bey NO
9%
5 Jeremiah Fears NO
9%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
8 Coby White CHI
8%
9 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
10 Kevin Huerter CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
44%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 24.9 3.5 5.9
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.6 5.7 4.8
3 Zion Williamson NO 23.7 6.0 4.5
4 Josh Giddey CHI 23.2 8.7 8.8
5 Saddiq Bey NO 19.9 8.0 3.2
6 Jordan Poole NO 19.2 2.5 3.8
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.7 4.4 4.4
8 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.6 7.9 3.5
9 Derik Queen NO 16.6 7.1 5.3
10 Tre Jones CHI 14.0 3.5 5.0
11 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.6 5.7 2.3
12 Jose Alvarado NO 13.3 3.6 4.5
13 Bryce McGowens NO 12.3 3.4 2.3
14 Isaac Okoro CHI 11.0 3.3 1.9
15 Herbert Jones NO 11.0 3.9 2.6
16 Kevin Huerter CHI 10.5 2.7 1.7
17 Zach Collins CHI 9.8 4.9 1.9
18 Jalen Smith CHI 9.1 6.2 1.4
19 Patrick Williams CHI 7.3 3.6 1.4
20 Micah Peavy NO 6.7 2.8 1.5
21 Yves Missi NO 6.3 6.6 1.2
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.1 1.9 1.3
23 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.8 3.4 1.2
24 Julian Phillips CHI 5.0 2.1 0.9
25 Jevon Carter CHI 4.7 1.3 0.9
26 Dalen Terry CHI 4.6 2.4 1.8
27 Kevon Looney NO 3.0 2.9 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.