NBA games

DET @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
112–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET25283227112
BOS33242424105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BOS
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 32 4 10
Tobias Harris S 32 13 7 3
Caris LeVert 19 13 1 2
Jaden Ivey 21 10 3 3
Ronald Holland II 14 9 5 0
Javonte Green 14 8 1 1
Isaiah Stewart 22 7 7 0
Ausar Thompson S 23 7 6 0
Duncan Robinson S 26 7 1 2
Jalen Duren S 29 6 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 40 34 8 7
Derrick White S 38 31 6 1
Payton Pritchard S 35 12 4 5
Anfernee Simons 25 9 0 1
Jordan Walsh S 18 8 6 0
Neemias Queta S 34 6 7 1
Hugo Gonzalez 16 5 5 0
Josh Minott 13 0 1 0
Sam Hauser 4 0 0 0
Baylor Scheierman 15 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 16-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
17%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
7 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
8%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
29%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 31.1 6.5 6.6
2 Cade Cunningham DET 26.8 7.0 8.6
3 Derrick White BOS 20.6 4.4 5.1
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.4 4.0 5.2
5 Jalen Duren DET 16.7 10.0 2.1
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.9 4.3 2.0
7 Anfernee Simons BOS 12.6 2.5 2.4
8 Jordan Walsh BOS 11.6 5.6 1.6
9 Neemias Queta BOS 11.5 8.4 1.5
10 Duncan Robinson DET 11.3 3.3 2.3
11 Ausar Thompson DET 11.1 5.7 2.8
12 Caris LeVert DET 9.1 2.2 2.9
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.9 5.0 1.2
14 Paul Reed DET 7.7 5.2 1.6
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.2 3.4 1.5
16 Jaden Ivey DET 7.1 2.2 1.4
17 Ronald Holland II DET 6.8 2.4 1.4
18 Josh Minott BOS 6.4 3.1 1.3
19 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.0 1.5 2.1
20 Luka Garza BOS 4.7 2.8 0.7
21 Javonte Green DET 4.4 1.3 0.6
22 Marcus Sasser DET 4.3 0.8 1.5
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.1 1.5 1.0
24 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.7 1.9 0.7
25 Chaz Lanier DET 3.5 1.2 0.6
26 Chris Boucher BOS 2.7 2.3 0.4
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.2 1.1 0.5
28 Amari Williams BOS 1.2 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.