NBA games

GS @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
131–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS31313732131
POR34273540136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home POR
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 48 3 2
Jimmy Butler III S 35 16 7 4
Draymond Green S 30 14 8 7
Brandin Podziemski 33 12 7 6
Moses Moody S 23 12 2 2
Quinten Post S 19 11 1 4
Buddy Hield 16 10 1 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 16 5 4 3
Pat Spencer 7 2 0 2
Gui Santos 6 1 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 34 35 3 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 33 35 3 4
Deni Avdija S 33 26 7 8
Robert Williams III 19 11 11 3
Caleb Love 12 8 0 4
Toumani Camara S 25 7 3 3
Sidy Cissoko 28 6 3 1
Kris Murray 27 5 3 2
Donovan Clingan S 22 3 10 3
Rayan Rupert 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
8%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
8%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
4 Deni Avdija POR
7%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
6 Stephen Curry GS
6%
7 Robert Williams III POR
6%
8 Draymond Green GS
6%
9 Yang Hansen POR
6%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
23%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 29.8 4.5 4.5
2 Deni Avdija POR 26.0 7.7 7.9
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.4 4.7 3.8
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.8 6.6 5.7
5 Jerami Grant POR 20.7 4.9 3.3
6 Jrue Holiday POR 18.7 4.2 8.2
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.6 4.5 3.9
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.4 5.5 3.0
9 Quinten Post GS 12.2 4.6 2.4
10 De'Anthony Melton GS 11.9 2.6 2.1
11 Donovan Clingan POR 11.7 10.4 1.8
12 Moses Moody GS 10.4 4.0 1.7
13 Buddy Hield GS 10.0 4.2 2.0
14 Pat Spencer GS 10.0 3.4 4.6
15 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.6 5.3 2.3
16 Draymond Green GS 9.2 6.2 5.0
17 Sidy Cissoko POR 9.2 2.8 1.6
18 Caleb Love POR 9.2 2.7 2.1
19 Kris Murray POR 7.4 4.9 1.5
20 Robert Williams III POR 5.6 7.2 0.7
21 Will Richard GS 5.5 2.5 0.9
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.2 4.4 0.9
23 Gui Santos GS 5.2 2.6 1.2
24 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.4 0.8
25 Duop Reath POR 3.4 1.6 0.6
26 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 2.1 0.7
27 Yang Hansen POR 2.3 1.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.