NBA games

SAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
103–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC27253219103
MIN20313729117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIN
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder 25 17 1 3
Precious Achiuwa 27 17 6 0
DeMar DeRozan S 39 17 4 3
Malik Monk 27 16 3 3
Zach LaVine S 16 10 1 1
Keegan Murray S 39 10 8 1
Maxime Raynaud S 26 8 6 0
Russell Westbrook S 28 8 7 10
Nique Clifford 13 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 36 24 10 3
Jaden McDaniels S 38 21 4 2
Naz Reid 35 20 11 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 34 18 6 6
Bones Hyland S 36 18 3 5
Rudy Gobert S 20 7 12 3
Rob Dillingham 12 5 1 3
Terrence Shannon Jr. 13 2 0 0
Jaylen Clark 17 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bones Hyland · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Rudy Gobert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
2 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
3 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
4 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
5 Julius Randle MIN
9%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
7 Dylan Cardwell SAC
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Maxime Raynaud SAC
8%
10 Nique Clifford SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
22%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 23.3 6.7 6.5
2 Zach LaVine SAC 18.6 3.2 2.7
3 Russell Westbrook SAC 16.8 6.5 7.9
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 16.6 3.6 3.2
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.4 5.9 3.5
6 Keegan Murray SAC 15.1 7.0 1.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.8 5.2 3.6
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.9 11.5 2.3
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 13.4 4.2 3.8
10 Malik Monk SAC 12.4 3.2 2.9
11 Maxime Raynaud SAC 10.8 5.3 1.4
12 Dennis Schroder SAC 9.9 2.8 4.3
13 Precious Achiuwa SAC 8.0 5.7 1.1
14 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.5 1.6 1.0
15 Dario Saric SAC 5.1 1.9 0.6
16 Nique Clifford SAC 5.1 2.4 1.0
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.9 2.0 0.7
18 Bones Hyland MIN 4.7 1.6 1.5
19 Keon Ellis SAC 4.2 1.5 0.8
20 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.9 1.7 1.5
21 Devin Carter SAC 3.8 1.6 1.4
22 Dylan Cardwell SAC 3.5 3.5 0.5
23 Doug McDermott SAC 3.0 1.1 0.6
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.9 1.1 0.6
25 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.9 1.1 0.5
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.4 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.