NBA games

MIL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
82–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2523231182
BKN37283428127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home BKN
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 29 20 2 0
Kyle Kuzma S 28 13 7 3
Ryan Rollins S 22 11 2 5
Bobby Portis 16 10 3 1
Myles Turner S 24 9 3 1
Jericho Sims 30 7 7 1
Kevin Porter Jr. S 30 5 3 7
Gary Harris 6 3 1 0
Cole Anthony 20 2 4 1
Andre Jackson Jr. 15 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Egor Demin S 26 17 3 3
Noah Clowney S 22 16 3 2
Tyrese Martin 18 14 1 2
Drake Powell 23 13 4 3
Terance Mann S 21 12 5 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 26 12 6 5
Nic Claxton S 26 10 3 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 10 8 5
Ziaire Williams 22 10 3 2
Danny Wolf 24 8 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Egor Demin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Egor Demin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
14%
2 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
4 Egor Demin BKN
10%
5 Noah Clowney BKN
10%
6 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
10%
7 Myles Turner MIL
9%
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
9 Terance Mann BKN
8%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
18%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 26.6 7.1 4.3
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 19.5 4.0 6.5
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 18.0 4.5 6.4
4 Noah Clowney BKN 17.9 4.3 2.4
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.1 4.8 2.8
6 Bobby Portis MIL 13.4 5.6 2.0
7 Nic Claxton BKN 13.3 8.4 4.8
8 Myles Turner MIL 11.6 4.3 1.5
9 Egor Demin BKN 10.8 3.5 3.8
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.4 3.1 1.4
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.3 1.6 1.5
12 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.2 3.5 2.2
13 Terance Mann BKN 9.0 3.9 4.1
14 Danny Wolf BKN 8.4 3.7 1.8
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.7 5.2 1.7
16 Drake Powell BKN 6.1 1.9 1.8
17 Jericho Sims MIL 5.7 5.0 1.2
18 Cole Anthony MIL 5.3 2.1 2.6
19 Gary Harris MIL 4.1 2.1 1.6
20 Pete Nance MIL 4.0 1.4 0.7
21 Nolan Traore BKN 3.9 1.4 1.4
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.1 0.9 0.5
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.8 1.4 0.5
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.4 1.3
25 Amir Coffey MIL 2.6 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.