NBA games

CHA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
119–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHA332431238119
CLE291832320111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CLE
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 44 29 4 3
Brandon Miller S 39 25 13 6
Miles Bridges S 39 20 10 6
Sion James S 37 9 7 3
Josh Green 15 8 2 0
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 21 7 3 0
KJ Simpson 19 6 0 4
Tidjane Salaun 14 6 2 2
Moussa Diabate 22 5 6 0
Mason Plumlee 10 4 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 39 26 2 9
Donovan Mitchell S 38 17 2 7
Jaylon Tyson 35 16 13 1
Dean Wade S 32 14 8 2
Thomas Bryant 14 10 6 1
Jarrett Allen S 23 9 3 1
Lonzo Ball 32 8 5 4
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 14 7 3 0
De'Andre Hunter S 27 4 4 0
Tyrese Proctor 7 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Jaylon Tyson CLE
10%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
10%
7 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
8 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
9%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
10 KJ Simpson CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
13%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.4 4.9 7.1
2 Miles Bridges CHA 22.2 5.2 3.7
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.8 4.5 4.4
4 Brandon Miller CHA 19.1 3.6 3.7
5 Darius Garland CLE 16.8 3.3 6.5
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE 15.4 6.6 2.2
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 14.2 3.8 2.2
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.1 7.6 1.8
9 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.6 6.3 1.0
10 Sion James CHA 7.7 3.3 1.5
11 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.5 4.6 4.6
12 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.9 3.8 1.1
13 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.4 6.7 1.3
14 KJ Simpson CHA 6.4 2.2 2.4
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.2 3.8 1.8
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.0 3.3 0.9
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.8 3.6 1.7
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.7 1.1 1.1
19 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.5 2.5 0.7
20 Drew Peterson CHA 2.7 1.6 0.6
21 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.8 2.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.