NBA games

PHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
117–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI29263626117
ATL39203526120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ATL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 33 35 4 3
VJ Edgecombe S 39 26 6 2
Joel Embiid S 30 22 14 1
Quentin Grimes S 39 14 2 7
Dominick Barlow S 27 11 7 1
Andre Drummond 20 5 10 3
Jabari Walker 17 4 5 1
Kyle Lowry 8 0 1 1
Justin Edwards 9 0 2 1
Jared McCain 18 0 3 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dyson Daniels S 39 27 10 4
Onyeka Okongwu S 36 20 15 4
Vit Krejci 26 19 4 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 21 15 1 1
Jalen Johnson S 35 12 10 12
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 12 7 6
Asa Newell 14 9 4 2
Luke Kennard 21 5 4 2
Mouhamed Gueye 11 1 1 0
Keaton Wallace 3 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
13%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
3 Trae Young ATL
10%
4 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
6 Paul George PHI
9%
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
9 Quentin Grimes PHI
8%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
38%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.1 12.0 10.5
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 22.3 4.4 3.4
3 Joel Embiid PHI 22.3 6.5 3.4
4 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.6 5.9 2.6
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.1 7.3 3.9
6 Quentin Grimes PHI 17.7 4.8 4.9
7 Trae Young ATL 17.7 3.2 8.5
8 Paul George PHI 17.2 5.1 3.7
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.5 7.4 5.9
10 VJ Edgecombe PHI 15.2 5.6 3.8
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.4 3.4 1.8
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.9 6.5 1.8
13 Vit Krejci ATL 9.8 2.8 2.0
14 Jared McCain PHI 9.5 2.7 2.1
15 Luke Kennard ATL 6.7 1.9 2.4
16 Jabari Walker PHI 6.7 4.0 1.0
17 Justin Edwards PHI 6.6 2.4 1.9
18 Andre Drummond PHI 6.3 8.4 1.2
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.2 3.6 0.9
20 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.7 1.6 2.0
21 Asa Newell ATL 4.6 1.8 0.8
22 Adem Bona PHI 3.9 3.7 0.4
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.1 0.6 0.5
24 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.5 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.