NBA games

WSH @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
108–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31272327108
IND3215192389

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home IND
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marvin Bagley III S 32 23 14 1
CJ McCollum S 34 18 6 2
Tre Johnson 16 14 2 2
Justin Champagnie S 33 13 14 0
Will Riley 23 12 1 0
Bub Carrington S 36 11 3 5
Kyshawn George S 36 9 8 9
Tristan Vukcevic 16 6 3 0
Jamir Watkins 15 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 32 15 4 2
Jay Huff S 25 13 4 0
Jarace Walker 22 12 3 0
Isaiah Jackson 23 11 12 0
Pascal Siakam S 29 11 4 4
Garrison Mathews 19 8 1 2
Andrew Nembhard S 30 7 2 6
Johnny Furphy 13 5 4 0
T.J. McConnell 15 4 4 4
Ethan Thompson S 24 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marvin Bagley III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Marvin Bagley III makes layup (Bub Carrington assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
3 CJ McCollum WSH
9%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
6 Marvin Bagley III WSH
8%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
8 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
9 Quenton Jackson IND
7%
10 Ethan Thompson IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
32%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.8 7.2 3.7
2 CJ McCollum WSH 23.0 3.8 4.1
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.5 3.4 7.4
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 19.9 5.0 3.1
5 Kyshawn George WSH 16.2 5.5 4.8
6 Marvin Bagley III WSH 10.8 6.7 1.5
7 Quenton Jackson IND 10.7 3.1 3.6
8 Bub Carrington WSH 10.7 3.1 4.3
9 Jay Huff IND 10.3 5.1 2.0
10 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 10.3 4.1 1.8
11 Khris Middleton WSH 10.2 3.7 3.8
12 T.J. McConnell IND 10.0 3.2 4.9
13 Tre Johnson WSH 9.7 3.0 1.5
14 Jarace Walker IND 9.5 4.5 1.6
15 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.2 5.7 1.1
16 Cam Whitmore WSH 7.0 3.3 0.8
17 Ethan Thompson IND 6.9 2.5 1.8
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.8 5.0 1.4
19 Garrison Mathews IND 6.1 2.1 1.2
20 Will Riley WSH 5.8 2.4 1.2
21 Johnny Furphy IND 5.0 2.3 0.9
22 Jamir Watkins WSH 4.8 3.1 0.7
23 Tony Bradley IND 4.1 2.2 0.8
24 Anthony Gill WSH 1.8 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.