NBA games

MIN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
127–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28332739127
GS27362829120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home GS
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 34 27 9 6
Rudy Gobert S 35 24 14 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 35 21 6 4
Naz Reid 30 18 4 7
Jaden McDaniels S 35 17 5 5
Terrence Shannon Jr. 30 9 4 3
Rob Dillingham 17 6 1 0
Bones Hyland S 5 3 0 2
Jaylen Clark 19 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 39 5 5
Quinten Post S 33 16 6 3
Jimmy Butler III S 37 15 8 5
Pat Spencer S 28 12 5 4
Moses Moody 23 11 4 2
De'Anthony Melton 20 9 2 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 15 8 7 1
Buddy Hield S 19 6 2 2
Brandin Podziemski 23 2 2 4
Gui Santos 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Quinten Post assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
12%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
10%
4 Stephen Curry GS
9%
5 Quinten Post GS
9%
6 Buddy Hield GS
9%
7 Pat Spencer GS
9%
8 Jonathan Kuminga GS
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Will Richard GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
35%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.4 4.2 4.0
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.7 6.6 5.9
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.8 6.0 5.6
4 Naz Reid MIN 15.2 5.8 2.7
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.5 5.0 2.9
6 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.5 4.5 2.9
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.2 10.9 1.9
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.0 3.7 3.7
9 Moses Moody GS 9.6 3.4 1.4
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS 9.5 5.3 2.1
11 Quinten Post GS 8.8 3.9 1.5
12 Buddy Hield GS 8.4 3.6 1.5
13 Pat Spencer GS 8.3 2.7 3.5
14 Will Richard GS 5.5 2.5 0.8
15 Gary Payton II GS 5.1 3.0 1.7
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.1 3.6 0.6
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.9 1.7 0.4
18 Gui Santos GS 3.8 2.2 0.7
19 Bones Hyland MIN 3.7 1.0 1.1
20 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.6 1.0 0.5
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.7 1.1 1.3
22 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.6 1.1 0.4
23 Leonard Miller MIN 2.5 1.1 0.5
24 Joe Ingles MIN 1.4 0.4 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.