NBA games

BKN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
111–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN33283119111
DAL32332529119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DAL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 34 4 3
Danny Wolf 27 17 7 1
Nic Claxton S 35 14 10 4
Terance Mann S 27 12 4 7
Noah Clowney S 33 11 4 4
Tyrese Martin 16 11 3 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 6 6 3
Egor Demin S 18 3 1 1
Ziaire Williams 25 3 3 1
Nolan Traore 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 33 24 14 3
Cooper Flagg S 34 22 5 8
Naji Marshall S 32 17 1 4
Max Christie 33 15 6 3
P.J. Washington S 25 13 4 2
Klay Thompson 20 12 2 2
Brandon Williams 26 9 3 5
Dwight Powell 15 7 3 1
Ryan Nembhard S 21 0 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Terance Mann assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis DAL
13%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
3 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
12%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
6 Egor Demin BKN
8%
7 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
9 Terance Mann BKN
7%
10 Ryan Nembhard DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
24%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 27.3 7.3 4.2
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 21.2 6.1 3.9
3 Anthony Davis DAL 21.0 10.3 3.4
4 Noah Clowney BKN 17.1 4.2 2.0
5 P.J. Washington DAL 16.2 7.0 2.1
6 Naji Marshall DAL 15.1 4.9 2.8
7 Nic Claxton BKN 12.8 8.8 4.8
8 Max Christie DAL 11.4 2.8 1.2
9 Klay Thompson DAL 10.7 2.6 1.1
10 Brandon Williams DAL 10.6 2.5 5.0
11 Egor Demin BKN 10.5 3.4 3.9
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.4 3.0 1.2
13 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.3 3.2 2.2
14 Ryan Nembhard DAL 8.8 1.9 4.6
15 Terance Mann BKN 8.2 3.3 3.0
16 Danny Wolf BKN 6.7 3.1 1.6
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 5.2 1.2
18 Drake Powell BKN 5.7 1.6 1.6
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.1 1.0 0.6
20 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.4 1.0 0.5
21 Nolan Traore BKN 3.1 0.7 1.2
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.3 1.9 0.8
23 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.3 2.6 0.3
24 Caleb Martin DAL 1.7 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.