NBA games

CLE @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
130–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE35272345130
WSH24364026126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home WSH
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 48 4 4
Evan Mobley S 36 23 13 6
Darius Garland S 35 18 3 6
De'Andre Hunter S 27 15 4 0
Jaylon Tyson S 31 13 6 3
Lonzo Ball 24 5 3 2
Craig Porter Jr. 11 4 5 4
Dean Wade 23 2 5 2
Thomas Bryant 8 2 2 0
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 10 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bub Carrington S 41 27 6 8
CJ McCollum S 37 27 4 6
Marvin Bagley III S 33 15 13 4
Kyshawn George S 26 15 2 3
Jamir Watkins 29 15 8 1
Tristan Vukcevic 15 14 5 1
Will Riley 23 7 3 4
Tre Johnson 17 3 1 1
Justin Champagnie S 18 3 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bub Carrington · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Bub Carrington makes 20-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum WSH
13%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE
10%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
10%
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE
10%
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH
8%
9 Justin Champagnie WSH
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
18%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 30.7 5.0 6.2
2 Evan Mobley CLE 21.5 10.1 4.1
3 CJ McCollum WSH 21.5 3.5 3.8
4 Darius Garland CLE 16.8 3.2 6.4
5 Kyshawn George WSH 16.0 5.8 5.3
6 Jaylon Tyson CLE 14.7 6.9 2.1
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 14.4 3.8 2.2
8 Tre Johnson WSH 9.0 2.6 1.2
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 8.2 5.4 1.0
10 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.0 3.5 1.5
11 Bub Carrington WSH 7.8 2.5 3.5
12 Cam Whitmore WSH 7.2 3.4 0.8
13 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 7.1 3.6 0.8
14 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.0 4.4 4.4
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.3 3.8 1.7
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.4 3.3 1.5
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.2 3.8 1.0
18 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.8 1.2 1.2
19 Will Riley WSH 4.0 1.5 0.7
20 Chris Livingston CLE 3.9 1.5 0.5
21 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.6 2.2 0.5
22 Jamir Watkins WSH 2.6 1.9 0.3
23 Anthony Gill WSH 1.9 0.9 0.3
24 Sharife Cooper WSH 1.5 0.3 0.4
25 AJ Johnson WSH 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.