NBA games

IND @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
105–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31273215105
PHI34292725115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home PHI
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 20 5 2
Andrew Nembhard S 35 18 5 7
T.J. McConnell 17 15 2 5
Jay Huff S 28 13 4 2
Ethan Thompson S 33 12 2 3
Garrison Mathews 23 8 4 2
Isaiah Jackson 12 7 9 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 30 7 5 2
Jarace Walker 18 3 7 1
Tony Bradley 9 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 32 39 9 3
Paul George S 33 23 6 5
VJ Edgecombe S 39 22 4 5
Dominick Barlow S 34 10 8 1
Quentin Grimes S 39 10 9 4
Jabari Walker 14 6 2 0
Jared McCain 14 5 1 0
Justin Edwards 19 0 2 3
Andre Drummond 16 0 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Paul George makes 18-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George PHI
13%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
12%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI
10%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
9%
8 Quenton Jackson IND
8%
9 Ethan Thompson IND
7%
10 Jay Huff IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
38%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.1 6.9 3.8
2 Joel Embiid PHI 20.0 6.3 3.6
3 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.9 3.1 6.8
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 19.0 5.5 2.9
5 Quentin Grimes PHI 17.3 4.3 4.5
6 Paul George PHI 15.0 4.9 3.2
7 VJ Edgecombe PHI 13.3 5.5 3.4
8 Quenton Jackson IND 10.2 3.0 3.4
9 Jay Huff IND 10.2 5.0 1.7
10 Jared McCain PHI 9.0 2.7 1.7
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.9 3.2 4.8
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.8 5.9 1.6
13 Jarace Walker IND 8.7 4.0 1.3
14 Andre Drummond PHI 6.8 8.8 0.9
15 Justin Edwards PHI 5.8 2.2 1.6
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.4 4.7 0.7
17 Ethan Thompson IND 5.1 1.8 1.3
18 Jabari Walker PHI 5.0 3.6 0.7
19 Garrison Mathews IND 4.3 1.2 0.7
20 Adem Bona PHI 4.1 4.3 0.4
21 Johnny Furphy IND 4.0 1.6 0.6
22 Tony Bradley IND 3.3 1.4 0.4
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.1 0.6 0.5
24 Kyle Lowry PHI 2.6 0.9 0.9
25 Johni Broome PHI 2.3 2.1 0.4
26 Taelon Peter IND 2.0 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.