NBA games

ATL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
115–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL33271936115
DET34353538142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DET
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 31 22 2 0
Jalen Johnson S 34 19 11 12
Dyson Daniels S 34 18 10 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 14 3 3
Asa Newell 17 10 3 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 27 10 3 2
Vit Krejci 29 8 2 2
Mouhamed Gueye 17 8 2 0
Keaton Wallace 9 6 1 0
Luke Kennard 15 0 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Stewart 21 17 5 5
Duncan Robinson S 21 15 4 2
Cade Cunningham S 23 15 1 6
Jalen Duren S 24 14 7 2
Ronald Holland II 25 12 5 3
Ausar Thompson S 21 12 6 1
Caris LeVert 23 10 1 8
Jaden Ivey 19 10 2 4
Tobias Harris S 21 9 3 1
Javonte Green 20 9 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
11%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
4 Trae Young ATL
9%
5 Tobias Harris DET
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
9 Jalen Johnson ATL
7%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
13%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 28.0 7.8 9.2
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 26.6 11.1 8.7
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.6 4.4 3.6
4 Jalen Duren DET 19.2 10.9 2.4
5 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.9 5.8 2.6
6 Trae Young ATL 18.1 2.9 7.8
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.1 6.6 3.7
8 Tobias Harris DET 16.2 4.3 2.1
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 15.3 6.6 5.5
10 Duncan Robinson DET 11.8 3.4 2.3
11 Ausar Thompson DET 10.6 5.4 2.6
12 Caris LeVert DET 9.2 2.4 2.7
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.0 2.9 1.3
14 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.9 5.6 1.1
15 Vit Krejci ATL 8.3 2.1 1.6
16 Paul Reed DET 7.8 5.7 1.5
17 Luke Kennard ATL 6.1 1.4 2.3
18 Jaden Ivey DET 6.0 2.1 1.1
19 Ronald Holland II DET 5.3 1.9 1.0
20 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.2 1.6 2.6
21 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.7 2.7 0.6
22 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.0 0.9 1.9
23 Asa Newell ATL 4.0 1.4 0.5
24 Javonte Green DET 3.8 1.2 0.6
25 Marcus Sasser DET 3.6 0.8 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.