NBA games

CHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
129–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI33223440129
CHA29323134126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CHA
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 34 26 7 11
Coby White S 30 20 5 2
Zach Collins 20 16 8 2
Patrick Williams 26 16 5 1
Isaac Okoro S 26 15 3 1
Nikola Vucevic S 22 13 3 4
Matas Buzelis S 24 10 0 1
Tre Jones 25 6 2 5
Jalen Smith 17 5 10 1
Dalen Terry 14 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 36 33 5 9
Miles Bridges S 34 32 2 7
Brandon Miller S 34 18 5 4
Sion James 26 14 4 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 31 10 6 2
KJ Simpson S 25 10 5 3
Tidjane Salaun 17 5 2 3
Josh Green 17 2 0 1
Moussa Diabate 13 2 3 0
Drew Peterson 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaac Okoro · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Isaac Okoro makes 4-foot two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
5 Coby White CHI
10%
6 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
10%
7 Matas Buzelis CHI
9%
8 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
10 KJ Simpson CHA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
20%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 24.4 3.4 6.2
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.5 5.7 3.7
3 Josh Giddey CHI 20.7 8.4 8.7
4 Kon Knueppel CHA 20.5 4.6 4.6
5 Brandon Miller CHA 18.5 3.5 4.0
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.8 8.1 3.4
7 Tre Jones CHI 14.7 3.2 4.1
8 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.6 6.1 2.2
9 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.6 2.6 1.5
10 Jalen Smith CHI 8.4 5.6 1.2
11 Zach Collins CHI 8.4 4.1 1.4
12 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.1 6.9 0.8
13 Sion James CHA 6.6 2.9 1.5
14 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.4 7.5 1.3
15 Patrick Williams CHI 5.6 3.1 1.0
16 KJ Simpson CHA 5.3 1.9 2.1
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.1 3.2 0.7
18 Jevon Carter CHI 4.9 1.3 0.9
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.2 2.0 0.6
20 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 2.1 1.4
21 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.2 2.5 0.9
22 Drew Peterson CHA 2.0 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.