NBA games

DEN @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
136–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN41363227136
SAC26282724105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home SAC
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 29 36 12 8
Peyton Watson S 23 21 2 1
Cameron Johnson S 33 16 3 1
Jonas Valanciunas 19 15 6 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 25 11 5 2
Jamal Murray S 26 11 3 9
Bruce Brown 26 8 5 7
Hunter Tyson 7 8 0 0
Jalen Pickett 25 6 5 4
Spencer Jones S 22 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 30 18 4 5
Russell Westbrook S 27 17 3 5
Devin Carter 21 15 1 4
Keegan Murray S 28 15 6 1
Maxime Raynaud S 37 15 9 1
DeMar DeRozan S 21 11 3 1
Keon Ellis 31 8 2 4
Precious Achiuwa 10 4 6 0
Nique Clifford S 28 2 4 0
Doug McDermott 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 10:20 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
2 Keegan Murray SAC
13%
3 Peyton Watson DEN
12%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC
11%
6 Cameron Johnson DEN
10%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
8 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
23%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.2 11.3 10.8
2 Jamal Murray DEN 26.7 3.7 7.6
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.0 3.6 3.9
4 Peyton Watson DEN 16.7 6.9 2.5
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 16.0 7.0 8.9
6 Cameron Johnson DEN 15.9 4.2 3.1
7 Keegan Murray SAC 15.4 7.0 1.9
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 12.8 2.5 1.7
9 Malik Monk SAC 12.2 3.0 2.7
10 Precious Achiuwa SAC 9.6 5.9 1.4
11 Maxime Raynaud SAC 9.2 4.7 1.3
12 Bruce Brown DEN 8.3 2.9 2.3
13 Spencer Jones DEN 7.4 3.4 1.1
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.1 4.4 1.0
15 Dario Saric SAC 5.4 1.9 0.8
16 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.8 3.0 0.9
17 Nique Clifford SAC 4.4 2.0 1.0
18 Keon Ellis SAC 3.5 1.4 0.7
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.8 1.7 0.4
20 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.8 1.0 0.8
21 Devin Carter SAC 2.3 1.0 1.0
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.6 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.