NBA games

POR @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
120–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR30382923120
NO39313538143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home NO
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 27 21 3 3
Sidy Cissoko 32 20 4 2
Deni Avdija S 32 16 6 6
Jerami Grant S 31 16 5 1
Toumani Camara S 28 15 4 5
Rayan Rupert 24 14 6 3
Caleb Love 22 9 1 4
Kris Murray S 29 7 9 1
Duop Reath 13 2 2 1
Javonte Cooke 4 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 31 24 6 4
Bryce McGowens 30 23 7 2
Jordan Poole 26 22 1 3
Jeremiah Fears S 25 19 7 4
Derik Queen S 35 17 5 7
Saddiq Bey S 29 15 8 5
Micah Peavy 11 5 3 1
Yves Missi 13 5 8 0
Jose Alvarado 23 4 5 9
Herbert Jones S 14 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derik Queen NO
11%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
9%
4 Jeremiah Fears NO
9%
5 Deni Avdija POR
8%
6 Jordan Poole NO
8%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Robert Williams III POR
7%
9 Yang Hansen POR
7%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
34%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
26%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 26.7 7.9 9.1
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.2 5.5 4.6
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 24.1 4.8 4.0
4 Jerami Grant POR 22.3 4.9 3.8
5 Saddiq Bey NO 18.8 7.5 2.8
6 Jordan Poole NO 18.3 2.4 3.9
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.7 4.2 4.2
8 Derik Queen NO 16.9 7.1 5.9
9 Toumani Camara POR 14.3 5.7 2.9
10 Jose Alvarado NO 13.2 3.5 4.3
11 Donovan Clingan POR 12.9 10.9 2.0
12 Herbert Jones NO 11.9 3.8 2.9
13 Bryce McGowens NO 10.4 2.9 1.9
14 Caleb Love POR 8.5 2.6 1.8
15 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.4 2.7 1.6
16 Kris Murray POR 7.2 4.1 1.4
17 Blake Wesley POR 6.5 2.6 3.1
18 Robert Williams III POR 6.4 7.0 0.7
19 Micah Peavy NO 6.4 2.6 1.4
20 Jordan Hawkins NO 6.2 1.7 1.3
21 Yves Missi NO 5.9 5.7 1.3
22 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.4 3.0 1.1
23 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.2 1.3 0.9
24 Duop Reath POR 3.1 1.0 0.5
25 Kevon Looney NO 2.8 3.0 0.9
26 Yang Hansen POR 2.7 2.0 0.8
27 Javonte Cooke POR 2.6 0.9 0.6
28 Rayan Rupert POR 2.5 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.