NBA games

BOS @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
101–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS35321321101
MIL29312729116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 29 30 3 3
Jordan Walsh S 32 20 8 0
Payton Pritchard S 31 11 5 7
Derrick White S 29 11 2 3
Neemias Queta S 25 9 10 0
Josh Minott 22 7 1 1
Anfernee Simons 26 7 0 2
Hugo Gonzalez 15 6 3 1
Sam Hauser 22 0 7 1
Baylor Scheierman 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 31 31 6 0
Bobby Portis 26 27 10 0
Kevin Porter Jr. S 32 18 10 13
Gary Trent Jr. S 28 13 2 1
Ryan Rollins S 26 10 2 7
Cole Anthony 19 9 3 5
Myles Turner S 28 4 3 0
Pete Nance 2 2 1 0
Jericho Sims 10 2 1 0
Gary Harris 33 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes layup (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ryan Rollins MIL
13%
2 Payton Pritchard BOS
13%
3 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
9%
7 Myles Turner MIL
9%
8 Jericho Sims MIL
9%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
8%
10 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.2 7.6 6.6
2 Derrick White BOS 21.2 4.6 5.8
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 19.7 4.7 6.7
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.6 4.5 5.1
5 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 18.2 3.4 5.5
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.9 4.3 2.8
7 Bobby Portis MIL 12.4 5.6 1.8
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 12.3 2.9 2.6
9 Myles Turner MIL 12.0 4.6 1.5
10 Neemias Queta BOS 11.6 8.4 1.6
11 Jordan Walsh BOS 9.3 4.7 1.3
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.9 1.3 1.4
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.1 3.4 1.4
14 Josh Minott BOS 6.1 3.3 1.0
15 Luka Garza BOS 5.3 3.1 0.7
16 Jericho Sims MIL 4.8 4.7 1.0
17 Cole Anthony MIL 4.2 1.4 2.5
18 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.0 1.6 0.9
19 Gary Harris MIL 3.6 1.5 1.1
20 Pete Nance MIL 3.4 1.0 0.4
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.3 1.7 0.5
22 Chris Boucher BOS 2.8 2.4 0.4
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.7 1.3 0.5
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.1 0.3
25 Amir Coffey MIL 1.8 0.7 0.3
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.7 0.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.