NBA games

LAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
113–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC29252831113
HOU29222935115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home HOU
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 35 33 7 1
Kawhi Leonard S 41 24 9 4
James Harden S 40 22 3 7
Bogdan Bogdanovic 24 10 5 2
John Collins S 24 9 0 2
Kris Dunn S 26 9 1 6
Nicolas Batum 28 6 3 2
Kobe Sanders 9 0 0 1
Brook Lopez 13 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 36 22 15 5
Amen Thompson S 41 20 9 8
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 18 10 4
Kevin Durant S 37 16 1 3
Aaron Holiday 17 13 1 0
Reed Sheppard 26 10 4 2
Josh Okogie S 21 8 3 2
Steven Adams 18 4 6 2
Clint Capela 7 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Okogie · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Josh Okogie makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
2 James Harden LAC
10%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
6 Kevin Durant HOU
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Clint Capela HOU
7%
9 Steven Adams HOU
7%
10 John Collins LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
36%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 27.7 4.4 7.4
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 25.6 5.0 3.6
3 Kevin Durant HOU 25.5 5.1 5.2
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.5 8.4 6.5
5 Amen Thompson HOU 20.2 8.3 5.2
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.9 11.0 3.4
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 16.2 6.3 2.1
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.3 4.2 3.6
9 John Collins LAC 12.0 4.7 1.1
10 Aaron Holiday HOU 10.7 2.0 1.4
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 9.8 2.8 2.7
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.1 2.9 2.8
13 Steven Adams HOU 6.6 8.2 1.3
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.4 2.1 1.3
15 Jordan Miller LAC 5.6 1.9 0.6
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.0 2.1 0.8
17 Josh Okogie HOU 4.8 3.2 0.8
18 Brook Lopez LAC 4.2 1.1 0.5
19 Kobe Brown LAC 3.8 1.7 0.8
20 Clint Capela HOU 3.7 5.2 0.5
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.4 1.5 0.7
22 Cam Christie LAC 2.8 1.8 0.4
23 JD Davison HOU 2.3 0.8 0.8
24 Jeff Green HOU 2.3 0.7 0.4
25 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 1.8 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.