NBA games

SAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
117–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC36222831117
LAL34272926116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 5 (LAL) / 3 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 28 25 3 2
Keon Ellis 26 20 2 2
Zach LaVine S 28 15 4 6
Nique Clifford S 33 13 5 7
Isaac Jones S 23 10 3 2
Drew Eubanks S 20 10 5 4
Dario Saric 25 10 6 0
Maxime Raynaud 16 9 2 0
Devin Carter 14 2 2 3
Daeqwon Plowden 15 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 31 5 9
Rui Hachimura S 30 18 1 1
Gabe Vincent S 23 14 0 2
Marcus Smart 23 14 3 2
Deandre Ayton S 30 12 9 2
Austin Reaves S 33 8 4 8
Jaxson Hayes 8 6 4 0
Dalton Knecht 6 5 1 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 14 4 2 0
Maxi Kleber 10 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes two point shot (Gabe Vincent assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton LAL
12%
2 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Jaxson Hayes LAL
10%
5 Dalton Knecht LAL
10%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
7 Dennis Schroder SAC
9%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
9%
9 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
9%
10 Gabe Vincent LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
33%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
16%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Austin Reaves LAL 23.3 4.6 3.5
2 Gabe Vincent LAL 18.0 2.4 3.8
3 Nique Clifford SAC 16.8 3.9 4.1
4 Zach LaVine SAC 16.0 3.4 3.1
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.2 3.6 1.7
6 Jake LaRavia LAL 11.2 4.0 3.1
7 Dalton Knecht LAL 10.4 4.6 2.5
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 9.3 9.3 1.9
9 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.0 6.5 1.7
10 RJ Davis LAL 8.0 1.8 0.9
11 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 7.1 1.9 1.4
12 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 7.0 4.7 2.5
13 Dennis Schroder SAC 6.7 3.4 1.6
14 Devin Carter SAC 6.1 2.3 1.6
15 Drew Eubanks SAC 5.5 3.5 0.9
16 Maxime Raynaud SAC 5.3 4.4 1.3
17 Nate Williams LAL 5.2 2.5 0.9
18 Isaiah Stevens SAC 5.1 1.5 1.6
19 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.9 4.3 1.0
20 Daeqwon Plowden SAC 4.7 1.2 0.7
21 Christian Koloko LAL 4.5 4.8 1.3
22 Keon Ellis SAC 4.3 1.4 0.9
23 Isaac Jones SAC 4.1 2.0 0.9
24 Anton Watson LAL 2.7 1.4 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.