NBA games

LAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
106–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC31163821106
GS21223129103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 4 (GS) / 3 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home GS
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kobe Sanders 37 25 4 2
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 26 13 11 3
Bradley Beal S 15 12 2 0
Cam Christie 12 12 0 2
Jahmyl Telfort 16 9 3 0
Jordan Miller 13 7 6 0
Jason Preston 15 6 3 3
Kobe Brown S 26 6 9 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 7 4 0 2
Kris Dunn S 7 4 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 30 20 4 5
Will Richard S 27 13 4 0
Buddy Hield 23 11 2 1
Al Horford S 20 10 0 2
Pat Spencer 20 9 5 6
Draymond Green S 22 9 5 3
Gary Payton II 16 8 3 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 12 8 2 0
Gui Santos 23 7 3 1
Brandin Podziemski S 20 5 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
15%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
3 Brandin Podziemski GS
13%
4 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
13%
5 Will Richard GS
11%
6 Al Horford GS
11%
7 Jordan Miller LAC
11%
8 Draymond Green GS
9%
9 Quinten Post GS
0%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
55%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
17%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 18.8 3.6 3.7
2 John Collins LAC 16.1 5.1 1.3
3 Quinten Post GS 10.7 3.6 1.5
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 9.9 7.9 2.4
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.7 2.8 4.4
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.7 2.3 0.9
7 Buddy Hield GS 8.6 3.4 1.9
8 Will Richard GS 7.5 2.8 2.2
9 Pat Spencer GS 7.5 2.3 2.0
10 Jordan Miller LAC 7.1 2.5 1.1
11 Gary Payton II GS 7.1 1.5 0.6
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.9 5.9 1.7
13 Draymond Green GS 5.5 1.3 3.3
14 Kris Dunn LAC 5.1 2.6 1.7
15 LJ Cryer GS 4.7 0.9 1.5
16 Gui Santos GS 4.6 2.1 1.4
17 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 4.3 3.7 0.8
18 Al Horford GS 4.2 3.2 1.6
19 Kobe Brown LAC 4.1 3.5 0.9
20 Jason Preston LAC 3.3 2.2 2.3
21 Jackson Rowe GS 3.1 1.8 0.7
22 Taevion Kinsey GS 1.4 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.